Bond Outlook July 30th
Major commentators (IMF, ML) are expressing what we have been emphasising for a year: this is no cyclical adjustment but a major realignment to match US earnings to spending.
Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, July 30th 2008]
“..bringing our (the USA’s) wants and needs into realignment after two decades of narcissistic debt accumulation to finance an unprecedented spending spree on consumer durables (we would add “and housing” – bridport) is going to involve years of savings and frugality”. Thus, Merrill Lynch, elegantly re-expressing the views we have been developing and expressing in our Weekly over the last few years. The key message is that the present economic problems are not just a short-term cyclical setback, they are long term and can only be overcome by the USA adapting its consumption to its production at government, national and household level (we deliberately leave corporations out of this list)
May we allow ourselves to remind readers of what we have been saying in support of this pessimistic outlook:
Pimco introduce another consideration, viz.