Forecasts for sovereign wealth funds’ investments in real estate

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Forecasts for sovereign wealth funds’ investments in real estate

Sizing up sovereign investment

The sovereigns are coming

Loving London


According to Philippe Tannenbaum, director of research at Eurohypo in London, predicting a volume of investment from the sovereign funds requires two data streams to be analysed: the flows (which of annual new investment might be directed toward property), and the stocks (the target proportion of real estate within the assets under management). In a five-year investment period, with a combination of sustained rapid growth of the assets under management and of high targets for the property included in them, the annual investments would represent about 40% of the actual global direct investment.

Forecasts for sovereign wealth funds’ investments in real estate* (All figures: $ bln)
Example 1: the existing assets increase of more or less 10% per year [1] Example 2: $12,000 billion in 2015 Example 3: $12,000 billion in 2012
Approach through flows
Compounded new investment per year, all sectors mixed 430 1,100 1,800
Out of which real estate
Scenario 1: 5% of the new investments 21 55 90
Scenario 2: 7% of the new investments 30 77 126
Scenario 3: 12% of the new investments 52 132 216
Approach through stock
Target of 5% of assets under management within 5 years 48 85 120
Target of 7% of assets under management within 5 years 68 119 168
Target of 12% of assets under management within 5 years 116 204 288
Source: Eurohypo Research
[1] That is: reinvesting the profits, no new money place into the funds. Gives an approximate size of $5 billion in 2012 and $6.5 billion in 2015
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