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Islamist upturn threatens reform

The IMF has disbursed $13 billion to Tukey this year and claims to see widespread support for economic reform in the country. But the summer’s political crisis has raised the prospect of electoral success for the Islamists.

       
Recep Tayyip
Erdogan

Turkey looks set to have an assembly dominated by two extremist parties, the Islamists and ultra nationalists, after the November 3 general election.


Opinion polls in mid-August unanimously confirm that the Justice&Development Party (AKP) is in the lead and stands to gain around 20% of the vote - nearly double that of its closest rival. But the peculiarities of the election law means it is uncertain that this will give the AKP a majority or even enough seats in the legislature to be a part of the government.


Under the election law only parties that get more than 10% of the vote gain seats in the 550-member Meclis. The only other party definitely above this threshold is deputy prime minister Devlet Bahceli's ultra right-wing Nationalist Action Party, which is forecast to receive around 11% of the vote.


The five other mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties are on the borderline and may or may not make it into the Meclis.




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