Private banking CIO outlook 2015: Pictet Wealth Management
Switzerland just made a big mistake, claims Yves Bonzon, CIO of Pictet Wealth Management. Will other central banks do the same?
The big fall in long-term rates, whereas there was a broad consensus that they would go up. Long term, US and EU sovereign bonds have returned 20% to 30% – one of their best years ever. We got that right. The collapse in [the] oil [price] was a surprise, although this was consistent with our bearish secular outlook for commodities, and we were not hurt.
It does not matter for investing which region is going to grow the most. What matters is who is going to grow the most relative to expectations. On this metric, the eurozone is the most likely candidate for a positive growth surprise. In any case, the region will nonetheless grow slower than the US.
Bullish long-term Treasuries, no change from last year. We will re-test the low at 1.38% on 10-year US Treasuries. Bearish high-yield both sides of the Atlantic. Still cautious emerging-market debt.
US Treasuries. Developed equities. In that order.
Politics in Europe. A major policy mistake by a government or a central bank – Switzerland just made one.