Banking: After wolves, Ireland fends off vultures
The near collapse of Ireland’s banks during the financial crisis did little to endear them to the nation. Now, as they return to profitability, the banks find themselves involved in another political controversy; this time over their attempts to sell off non-performing loans.
ABN Amro’s fate is also Europe’s
The Dutch bank’s future as a standalone bank is once again in question.
Estonian lender targets London’s fintechs
LHV looks to expand cryptocurrency customer base; UK head sees opportunities for EU banks in Brexit.
Banking: No trust in Malta
Pontificating CEO of Pilatus Bank is arrested.
These are the eurozone’s next big bank mergers
Stock market ups and downs over the last two years reveal a new line-up of possible big bank buyers in the eurozone. If they wait for balance sheet clean-ups and government sell-downs, they may have to up their bids.
CaixaBank brushes off Catalan crisis
Redomicile quelled depositor fears, says CEO; economy boosts newly acquired Portuguese business.
Latvian banking: Let there be light
For too long, the country has been at the top of the world’s news agenda for all the wrong reasons.
Europe’s banks need a faster recovery
After a year in the recovery ward, 2017 results show some banks are healing. The most serious illness, negative rates, is stubbornly resistant however. The danger remains that banks may not recover before another disease –financial or technological – strikes.
Italy’s debt problem still a huge risk
CEE banking: Looking on the bright side
February 09, 2018
French debt binge turns spotlight on buy-outs
Cap on French banks’ corporate exposures could be transferred across Europe; household leverage outpacing corporate.
ECR survey results Q4 2017: EMs back in vogue as global prospects soar
Where the gold lies in European FIG
Banking: France’s mere mortals are alive and well
NPLs: European disunion
Any attempt to deal with Europe’s non-performing loans always seems to end up in a fight.
Alternative awards of the year 2017
Monetary policy has delivered global growth and booming asset prices. During the financial crisis and its aftermath, central bankers demonstrated admirable pragmatic radicalism. But monetary policy is not a cure-all, and another global downturn will present an even tougher test for policymakers.
SRB still holds most of the cards after Banco Popular shareholders’ partial victory
Housing dip could knock the Nordics
As European banks are recovering, Nordic banks are facing perhaps their biggest challenge since the 2008 crisis. Their time as the darlings of the sector may be over.
Regulation: English-law bonds could be excluded from MREL post-Brexit
Western Europe: European banking’s behind-the-scenes activist
European banking: What can an activist do?
Hard-ball US-style activism is unlikely to succeed in Europe.
ECB piles more pressure on Italian mid-tier
CMU key to solving the ‘real problem of Europe’
Bankers see European capital markets union as more needed than ever to help drive growth in the region, but are fretting about slow progress and a scope some feel is too narrow – however, an EU official attending the Institute of International Finance meetings in Washington defended the bloc’s approach.
Markets prepare for rising rates as Draghi recalibrates
Why Popular problems still afflict Spain
European banking: The Spanish inquisition
Hedging against rate rises in Europe
The great Greek Balkan banking sell-off
NBG and Alpha speed up exits; private equity buyers appear.
Low rates hobble Germany’s public banks
Bank resolution: The exception does not always prove the rule
Nearly every time Europe’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive is called into play, there seems to be a new justification for using public money.
Banking: Throwing the bail-in out with the bath water
Nordea move shows Wahlroos is not all bark
Country risk: Greece is on the long road back
There are still huge obstacles ahead for the high-risk, tier-5 borrower, but the improvement in Euromoney’s country risk survey has been matched by credit rating upgrades and lower borrowing costs.
Hedging against the unwind of QE in Europe
Amid rising uncertainty over when the ECB will end quantitative easing and the likely extent of rate rises in the eurozone, the realization dawns that some investors could suffer devastating losses.
Italy is still Europe’s main political tail-risk
Germany’s risk spike is not just election related
Past misdeeds haunt Latvia’s banking sector
ECB botches leveraged finance guidelines
The European Central Bank (ECB) has irritated bankers with efforts to impose its own equivalent to US standards on leverage finance that may be doomed anyway.
Italy rescue fund manager hits back at critics
Firm behind Atlante rubbishes private offers for Veneto banks; freed funds for MPS deal a ‘coincidence’.
Some investors buy even as ECB sparks bond market falls
Spanish banking: Santander swoops
A big depositor run in Spain spells trouble for some – but the country’s biggest bank thinks it has spotted an opportunity.
Nordic banks might not be the right model
Europe’s taper tantrum exposes bond market vulnerability
Any movement in eurozone policy rates in the near future remains unlikely, but the mini taper tantrum at the end of June shows just how sensitive markets are to central bank signalling.
Spain’s bank rescue could make tier 2 less Popular
Portugal’s declining risks should return its complement of investment grades
Markets brace for the great QE unwind
Quantitative easing has been the defining monetary policy innovation of the 21st century. With global economic recovery now seemingly robust, the challenge facing policymakers is to reverse this stimulus. This is likely to be fraught with danger, particularly in Europe.
Private equity: Distressed funds are Europe’s new shareholder of last resort
Private equity funds specializing in distressed debt will strike a hard bargain before acquiring and recapitalizing troubled banks, but European state-aid rules make the alternative even less appealing.
European regulation: Banks need union for profitability
Emerging Europe banking: EU pressure pays off
European authorities deserve credit for pushing through reform of Slovenia’s banking sector.
Inside investment: Learning to love the euro
QE: It’s the monetary policy, stupid
Western Europe: Europe’s banks leave the emergency ward
The ECB’s inflation outlook in March gave hope that, after a year in intensive care, European banks are recovering. There is a sense that Basel risk-weighting rules pose less of an immediate danger, while peak regulation has passed. Is European banking cured or only in remission?
Banking: The UK versus Europe
Western Europe banking: The long road to redemption
The fortunes of the Spanish banks show how the recovery story investors have latched onto recently may be just as simplistic as the doom scenario they imagined only a few months ago.
Country risk: Italy is the volcano waiting to erupt
Against the tide: Election summer surprises
France's regulated savings: A growing cost of tradition
The increasing burden of France’s regulated savings comes just when banks are less able to afford them.
Against the tide: Populist threat held off but don’t expect bond rally
Banking: Lessons from America
Banking: Europe’s battle to fix the ‘doom loop’
Western Europe: Portugal’s banks receive life support, at a cost
Delays to second bailout cause spike in Greek risk
Country risk expert insight: Hydra-headed debt crisis rears its ugly heads again in Greece
February 24, 2017
The Netherlands remains a safe place to invest
European NPLs: Think global, act local
Setting up a European bad bank is a dauntingly complicated and time-consuming proposition. Europe’s NPL problem needs to be tackled at the national level.
EBA’s Enria says Europe-wide bad bank is essential to avoid Japan-style stagnation
Against the tide: Italy – another victim of the anger vote
With the sizeable majority voting no to political reform in the Italian referendum, the anger vote has claimed its next victim – Italy. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy continue to fall.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2016: Italy, UK and US shocks underline the risks of populism, as oil exporters take a caning
Portugal’s doubtful Chinese bailout
Chinese firms are back in the running for control of Portuguese banking. The two sides are more used to doing business now – and the sellers are even more desperate for capital.
Year in data 2016: A watershed year for European bank shares
For many European bank stocks, 2016 was an unrelentingly awful year.
Spain: BMN merger to trigger sales as Rajoy returns
Spain: Creditor deal saves Abengoa – for now
Hedge funds gain security over crown jewel; Isolux much quicker to reach agreement.
ECB holds Popular’s feet to the flames
Emerging Europe: Lithuania goes all in on fintech
Italian shock might blow a hole in stronger Piigs risk profile
Country risk expert insight: Spain after the political impasse
The political chaos, which left the country without a government for 10 months after two election rounds, seems to be finally contained as a new minority government is in the making.
Italy bond: Methuselah madness
A bet on QE expansion overrode worries about the referendum for Italy’s 50-year debut.
Germany’s banks go down with the ship
Europe banking: The 20-year trade with zero return
European banks stocks have been on a tear since their summer lows, with the Stoxx Europe 600 banks index rising by 30% from the bottom of 117 in early July, up to 153 at the end of October.
Against the tide: Europe’s banks still in trouble
Activist investors: Fund activism on the rise in Europe
European activism reaches record levels; softer approach contrasts with US aggression.
Italy’s rising risk is warning of an existential eurozone shock
Its risk score plunged the most of any country worldwide in Euromoney’s country risk survey in Q3 2016, highlighting how eurozone investors must remain on their toes.
Slovenia’s sunny outlook a bright spot amid gloomy neighbours
The country is gradually improving its position in the ECR rankings – unlike several of its neighbours.
ECB: Intervention without dread
Rating review puts Portugal on edge
Agency fears growth outlook ahead of review; ECB liquidity support in peril.
Against the tide: Politics and economics – the anger vote
CEE sovereigns: Slovenia regains top-tier borrower status
Banks’ sovereign coverage models in the spotlight; consistency is key, say market leaders.
Against the tide: Monetary policy measures – Helicopter money? Not likely
Emerging Europe: Latvia looks beyond its big bank clean-up
Belgium ups the ante in regulatory war on leverage for retail FX
Regulators around the world have repeatedly tried to tackle the problem of excessive leverage being freely available to retail, particularly in FX, but Belgium's outright ban on leveraged products is the most radical solution yet.
Spain, Turkey bank risk puts cloak of fear over Europe’s investor outlook
Against the tide: Political flashpoints
The attempted coup in Turkey and the ever-widening purge of those in opposition to president Recep Tayyip Erdogan have set the scene for the end of the country’s accession into the EU, created huge uncertainty about the implementation of the EU-Turkey immigration deal and increased the forces for populism and separation from the EU project.
Structural problems and underperforming economy the biggest threat to Italy
Italian banking: Squaring the circle
Italy’s banks cannot deal with their NPLs unless they have capital, but they are not being allowed to recapitalize until they have dealt with their NPLs.
Portugal: bail-in guinea pig or back-door bail-out?
Could Lisbon make its two biggest problems one by nationalizing Novo Banco and merging it with CGD?
Europe’s bank stability is in question, say country risk experts
Country risk: Cyprus is stronger than its ratings claim
EU referendum: UK banks brace for Brexit risk
Existential threat to euro wholesale industry; Fears for loss of single-market passport.
ECB's corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP): what you need to know
Euromoney’s round-up of the European Central Bank’s CSPP, including the eligibility criteria and process.
News of the ECB’s corporate-sector purchasing programme shocked the market in March and has already prompted a stampede for paper among desperate investors before the central bank has purchased a single bond. Bankers and investors are already complaining that the programme will not have its desired effect.
Time to fix UniCredit
Under a new CEO, investors in Italy’s biggest bank need to see shock and awe.
Banking: To CEE or not to CEE
The old pan-regional banking model is under threat but that presents opportunities for new champions to emerge.
What does emerging Europe get out of banking union?
In the great debate on banking union, the smaller markets of emerging Europe are often overlooked. Yet, with banking sectors dominated by eurozone groups, they are uniquely vulnerable to changing regulatory regimes.
Slovenia to privatize NLB in public listing
‘Cumbersome’ lender may struggle for demand; Apollo targets 25% market share for NKBM.
Portuguese backlash against Spanish banks
Manifesto decries foreign control; signatories call for local bank.
Mario Centeno has the unenviable task of being the face of fiscal responsibility in a government elected on an anti-austerity ticket. The finance minister must cut his way through international criticism, privatization and the struggles of the local banking system.
Greece hosts KKR scheme as NPL market opens
Alpha and Eurobank join Pillarstone platform; regulatory changes could spur more deals.
Italy banking: Atlas wrestles critics over size
Bank backstop fund competes with private equity; doubters say it should be four times bigger.
Slovakia leaps ahead of France, reveals country risk survey
Italy banking: Inside Cassa Depositi e Prestiti
The big wobble: Can the SSM stabilize Europe's banking system?
SSM: Banks brace for punishment on credit risk, sovereign debt
Apart from standardizing the numerator for banks’ solvency ratio (capital), the eurozone and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are going to analyse and, where necessary, harmonise the denominator (risk-weighted assets).
Italy banking merger: Beginning or end?
Mixed regulatory messages cloud the outlook after Italy’s first big bank merger since 2008.
Inside investment: Driving lessons from Greece
Central bank policy has evolved from unorthodox to downright strange as politicians have failed to take control of the post-crisis economy. Sooner rather later they will confront a stark choice signposted Greece or Ireland.
Sideways: ECB pixie dust fails to revive credit trading
Sovereignty weighs on Portugal’s banking recovery
Portugal’s banks are doing better than at any point since the eurozone crisis. But local bankers’ optimism is tempered by concerns over ownership issues at BPI, Banif and Novo Banco.
Country risk: Solid Slovenia pushes nose in front of European comeback countries
Country risk: Why Italy is a safer bet than Spain
Delve into the details of their respective economic and political prospects, and Italy’s investor credentials are seemingly more favourable than Spain’s.
Italy: Rome fiddles as banks burn
State bad debt scheme to chip not chop; BCC reform could create top-three lender.
EU banking union ushers in new era
Banking: Portugal’s bail-in bombshell
Portugal’s central bank had very few options when it decided to bail-in senior bondholders of Novo Banco at the end of last year. The move has dismayed investors and may breach the ECB’s newly introduced bail-in powers. Have years of effort in developing a bank resolution regime already gone up in smoke? And what does it all mean for a deeply shaken market for bank funding?
Portugal banking: The long shadow of Banif and BES
The Bank of Portugal’s decision to transfer just five tranches of bonds on December 29 was not made in isolation. Bankers close to the situation in Portugal say two previous situations influenced the central bank’s thinking.
Novo Banco bail-in may breach BRRD transfer rules
Bank of Portugal tells Euromoney that Novo Banco bail in has satisfied BRRD conditions for the exercise of retransfer power but insolvency experts believe that important criteria have not been met.
Irish banks: optimism at last
After near extinction in 2011, Ireland’s banks are well on their way back to profitability and growth. But, as the nation’s debt levels continue to fall, can the banks prosper in a credit-less recovery?
Ireland’s bank CEOs play to their audiences
The scale of the banking crisis in Ireland has made those banks’ leaders into national figures. There is often a theatrical element to Irish public life and the bank CEOs are convincing actors.
Macaskill on markets: How to game a Draghi Put for corporate bonds
European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has been dropping further hints that he is considering unconventional measures to combat deflationary pressures in the region. This sets the stage for potential central bank buying of European corporate bonds, which in turn raises the question of whether there will be opportunities for nimble investors to game a new ‘Draghi Put’ for corporate credit.
Against the tide: Cameron’s sterling effort
Britain’s renegotiation of its relationship with the EU could be a good thing for Europe too.
Against the tide: Spain is a gauge for Europe
The country is an indicator of the European Union’s future.
Inside the race for Italy's NPLs
International investors are scrambling to establish themselves as the country’s huge NPL market finally starts to creak open. But this is not a market for the faint-hearted, and achieving those double-digit rates of return will require skill and unrivalled local knowledge.
Country risk: Why Moody’s is wrong on Ireland
Ireland’s triple-B rating is out of line with its improving ranking in Euromoney’s country risk survey. Even Fitch and S&P might need to take action if the trend continues.
Euromoney special report: Portugal
Capital markets and M&A in Portugal post-Troika; Portugal: investing in sustainable growth; Still progressing, despite the setbacks
Against the tide: Is Italy turning?
Renzi’s reforms and favourable winds seem to be working some magic on the country’s numbers.
Cyprus almost as safe as Portugal
The island state has returned to growth earlier than expected in spite of its trade and banking-sector exposures to Greece, after the banking crisis caused a severe macro-economic adjustment.
Country risk: There’s an A in Iceland
Iceland and Ireland, two of the earliest victims of the sovereign debt crisis that hit Europe in 2009 are ahead of the pack again – but this time they are leading the way by re-establishing themselves as economic success stories. Euromoney Country Risk’s survey charts the risers and fallers.
Croatia joins 'next Greece' club
Comparing countries with Greece is a futile exercise, which is also alarmist and potentially damaging. Let’s put an end to the lazy shorthand.
Awards for Excellence 2015: Banker of the year
John Hourican, the Bank of Cyprus chief executive, will move on this summer after restoring the bank to health. The rapid recovery of the bank led to a net increase in deposits in Cyprus in the fourth quarter of 2014 for the first time since the bail-in in March 2013, a trend that has continued into 2015 despite uncertainty in Greece and the full abolition of capital controls.
Country Awards for Excellence 2015: Western Europe – Cyprus
Best bank: Bank of Cyprus.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2015: In search of safe havens with Greece on the brink
The latest quarterly round-up from Euromoney’s crowd-sourcing country risk survey – a unique poll of more than 440 expert participants – shows no fewer than 80 of the world’s 186 sovereigns becoming riskier during the first half of 2015.
Portugal and Hungary to reclaim investment grade, says risk survey
Euromoney’s crowd-sourcing, survey-based approach to evaluating country risk successfully predicted a similar path for the Philippines two years ago. In addition to these two European borrowers, however, there are a handful of others with longer-term prospects for investors to keep an eye on.
Banking in Italy: Economies of scale
Only structural change, not tweaks, will bring a recovery across Italy’s banking sector.
Portugal debate: Portugal perks up
The country’s economic recovery continues to gather momentum, underpinned by strengthening domestic demand and robust exports. The government has regained access to the international capital markets and concerns about contagion have receded. There are still vulnerabilities: debt levels are high and the banking system is weak. But Portugal has a spring in its step that it has not had since before the crisis.
Against the tide: UK politics – Dependent and independent
The newly elected Tory party must wrestle with an invigorated SNP and its old bête noire, the EU. The proposed in/out referendum will cast a long shadow over the UK.
Crisis in Greece still threatening the eurozone
Euromoney’s risk experts weigh up the various options as the ‘end-game’ nears.
Against the tide: Greece – the joker in the pack
The eurozone recovery looks increasingly secure but the low growth rate is still a big cause for concern.
Tsipras prepares the ground for compromise as Greek deal inches closer
As the race to reach an agreement on Greek reforms and the latest instalment on the European aid package enters its final weeks, prime minister Alexis Tsipras looks set to make the necessary concessions to secure European assistance.
Emerging Europe: Euro bond buyers flock to Balkan quartet
Bulgaria sells €3.1 billion record breaker; Slovenia prices 20-year deal inside Spain.
How eurozone QE is reshaping the bond markets
If Europe’s economy remains in crisis, then someone please tell the bond markets. The ECB’s asset purchase programme has driven half of the EU’s sovereign debt pile into negative yield territory. And Draghi’s plan has only just started. Funds see little choice but to follow the QE monster on its path of destruction through the yield curve. Will that lead to the surreal outcome of all EU sovereigns yielding the same, regardless of credit quality?
Against the tide: Glow of recovery in Europe
At times the ECB seems to lurk so far behind the curve that it appears to be using some sort of random monetary-policy generator.
Against the tide: The fragmentation of Europe
ECB commences covered bonds amid intrigue
Failed ECB asset purchases plan has wrought 'malign impacts' for the market
Against the tide: The ECB goes for broke
The eurozone’s economic fortunes should start to recover with the arrival, at last, of full-blown quantitative easing. As the world’s leading currencies are set for a race to the bottom, it could be time to buy gold.
Greek banks – quiet buy or screaming sell?
Santander deal raises doubts over ECB stress test
On January 8, Santander took a volatile equity market by surprise, raising €7.5 billion ($8.9 billion) through an accelerated bookbuild, the largest such deal on record in the European equity capital markets.
Mugur Isarescu: Romania’s central figure
Distressed debt: AQR unearths a further €136 billion NPLs in Europe
Stress tests fail to address corporate lending; online platforms might have emerged too late.
Banking: AQR aftermath throws up more questions for banks
Investors greeted the European Central Bank’s asset quality review with little more than a shrug. They view it as merely the first step on a journey to enhanced and uniform bank supervision that might take a decade to complete. They are much more worried about the sustainability of banks’ business models and whether or not they can even earn enough to service their growing capital stack.
Heightened French risk still imperilling the eurozone
France’s creditworthiness has continually worsened during the six years since the global financial crisis. The question is whether the rising risk trend will continue into 2015 and will that begin to affect its borrowing costs, which have recently hit record lows.
Bundesbank’s Dombret says trust restored in European banking system
In an interview with Euromoney, Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret sounds an upbeat note on the rigour of the ECB’s asset-quality review (AQR) and the eurozone’s resolution arrangements, but issues a sharp warning over banks’ risk-free treatment of sovereign debt.
Against the tide: Eurozone still under the cosh
The financial sector remains central to the eurozone’s economic woes. Promises of ECB support only prolong the problem.
Inside investment: ECB palliatives and the sick men
Unless there is an accelerated plan for full political and fiscal union, the next eurozone crisis could prove existential.
Jury out on ECB’s ABS plan
Market players are hoping Draghi can overcome liquidity and scale challenges in his much-trumpeted ABS purchase plan – seen by some as QE by another name – but if he fails the central bank will have no option but to resort to QE, say analysts.
ECB jumps gun with ABS purchase programme
The European Central Bank’s announcement on Thursday that it would start a private sector purchase programme of both ABS and covered bonds was both widely anticipated and yet still quite shocking.
Draghi wows but market remains fixated on QE
Analysts are divided over the outlook for the euro and the likely potency of the ECB latest monetary-easing measures, after Thursday’s meeting that saw the central bank cutting rates and announcing the October launch of an ABS purchasing programme. While the measures will buoy credit at the front-end, the jury is out on full-scale QE in the coming months.
Greece seeks swifter NPL resolution regime
€75 billion or 35% of Greek loans non-performing; analysts warn banks could face €12 billion capital hole.
Europe’s bank risks back under the spotlight
The failure of Portuguese lender Banco Espírito Santo (BES) points to lingering fault lines in the financial regulatory framework and knock-on effects for banks outside the EU.
Portugal rates investment grade in spite of its bank troubles
Investors might be worried by the tail-risk implications of the failed Portuguese lender BES but the sovereign is in a much improved state since completing its three-year bailout programme.
Greek banks focus on the present
August 2014Against the tide: QE this year is inevitable
The country seems to be turning a corner: there are hopes its economy might return to growth this year. Local banks think they’re in good shape for the European Banking Authority tests and that there might even be opportunities in non-performing loans.
ECB president Mario Draghi has resisted using his quantitative easing bazooka up to now. However, with inflation expectations already moving lower, he will have to fire it before the year is out.
The latest results from the ECR survey show emerging markets (EMs) becoming riskier during the first half of this year, in contrast to the increasing safety offered by developed countries across the G10 and an improving eurozone.
The spillover from the proposed voiding of state guarantees on subordinate debt of Austria’s Hypo Alpe Adria could hit bonds of other banks across Europe.
Against the tide: Time for ECB action
Bulgaria and Croatia on negative ECR trend
Credit rating agencies' shortcomings laid bare by ECR eurozone periphery trends
Riding the Baltic rollercoaster
Eurozone still on-course for break-up, warns Saxo CEO
Ireland and Spain lead the way on a long road back for the eurozone periphery
Euromoney Country Risk Survey results Q1 2014: Confidence in EMs nosedives as eurozone trust returns
Jury remains out on ECB deflation-fighting plans
Šimonyte: Lithuanian central bank eyes euro ambition
Enduring strength in the euro might derail any nascent recovery
Portugal set fair to exit the bailout
Rates buyers are moving back into Portuguese government bonds as yields fall, growth returns and exports boom.
Against the tide: Populism might gain, but the centre will unite
The EU elections are likely to deliver big gains for populist parties of the left and right, namely those opposed to the European project and/or further integration.
Emerging Europe: Slovenia bailout ‘the last one’ says central bank
Privatization a great opportunity; credit demand remains weak.
Italian political drama predicted by country-risk experts
The appointment of Matteo Renzi as Italy’s new prime minister highlights the problem of consensus policymaking that has been worrying risk experts for some time.
Against the tide: Debt deflation in Europe?
A more optimistic picture of the eurozone economy is clouded by deflationary pressures, which are especially perilous in Greece. There is no easy fix, but a cheaper euro would help.
Euromoney Country Risk Survey results FY2013: Eurozone woes and tapering fears stalk global economy
Global risk continued to rise in 2013, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. Gloomy analysts remain cautious on the eurozone and the potential impact of the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus on capital flows to emerging market economies.
Deflation fears to renew currency wars as ECB poised for QE, say analysts
With global economic growth still stuttering, currency depreciation has become a zero-sum game for central banks, and recent developments in some key currencies have shown that fears of an inflation undershoot or outright deflation will remain an important driver for their currency policies.
Against the tide: Don’t be beastly to Germans
US claims that Germany’s external surpluses are hindering global recovery are inaccurate and unjustified.
Inside investment: The European wrong contest
Investment strategists seem convinced that the euro crisis is over and European equities will outperform in 2014 as growth returns. There are clear and present dangers to this cosy consensus view and the banks are still at the heart of the problem.
Against the tide: The eurozone’s nexus of debt
The debt crisis is not over. A renewed bout will spring from banks in the EU periphery.
Poland safer than its credit ratings suggest
Poland’s secure risk profile is still justified, according to economists and other country-risk experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. With the sovereign holding steady this year in ECR’s global rankings, and on a longer-term upward trend, its credit ratings should be adjusted upwards.
ECB weighs quantitative easing as options to revive economy run dry
With inflation continuing to fall and growth flatlining, pressure is mounting on the ECB as it edges closer to exhausting less contentious policy weapons to combat the threat of deflation.
Rabobank chief economist calls for monetary financing by the ECB
Stresses are being felt closer to the core as investors pile into the recovery in the periphery of the eurozone.
Eurozone banks’ NPL crisis threatens to derail recovery
The IMF warns that corporate loan losses for banks in Spain, Italy and Portugal could hit €282 billion over next two years, highlighting the scale of the challenge for the ECB’s asset-quality review amid continued financial fragmentation.
Impact of ECB negative rates move on corporate behaviour unclear
It’s unclear whether a negative deposit rate – as mooted by ECB officials in recent weeks – would trigger corporates to invest excess cash or, given risk aversion and the deficit of demand, continue to hoard cash, say analysts.
Against the tide: Germany complicates union
Germany will dig in its heels about structures that might put it in a minority in decision-making and might expose its taxpayers to unwanted bailouts.
Bank capital: Irish bank weakness might undermine bailout exit
Banking sector still faces acute challenges; Bailout exit this year might be premature.
Spanish banks: Sabadell turns the corner after equity triumph
Just as international institutional investors bought into the Spanish recovery story this summer, Sabadell caught the moment with a €1.4 billion equity deal to shore up its balance sheet and provide for future loan growth. Two Latin American billionaire cornerstone investors ensured the deal’s success and drew other investors’ attention away from the Spanish banking sector’s problems and towards its prospects.
Eurozone plans for single bank resolution authority in disarray
Efforts to create a single European resolution mechanism to bail out or wind down troubled eurozone banks are bogged down in uncertainty and political wrangling, throwing the banking union project into doubt, according to experts.
European bank-instability risk falls by around 30%; France remains outlier
The leverage of the French banking system poses a European-wide risk to financial stability, according to the Centre for Risk Management at Lausanne, which otherwise notes positive bank-leveraging progress in the region in recent months.
Investors pile into Spanish recovery
Capital is flowing into Spain in expectation of the economy’s return to growth but optimism might be excessive.
Baltics riskier as weaker trade flows hit region
The Baltic states’ improving growth prospects are under pressure due to the eurozone’s frailties and their close trade and investment links to Sweden and Russia.
ECB asset quality review is moment of truth
Europe’s Tarp moment could be looming as ECB president Mario Draghi issues a sharp warning that the year-long review of the region’s banking system will be credible and might require public backstops. Many long-neglected issues are coming to a head, from accounting and bank-reporting norms to national regulatory conventions. However, there is no clarity yet on the hot-button questions.
European bank-instability risk falls by around 30%; France remains outlier
The leverage of the French banking system poses a European-wide risk to financial stability, according to the Centre for Risk Management at Lausanne, which otherwise notes positive bank-leveraging progress in the region in recent months.
Italy less risky than Spain in latest economist survey despite political uncertainty
Notwithstanding the recent rise in its government bond yields, Italy still ranks higher than Spain in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, despite the country’s uncertain political outlook.
European banking: Investors doubt banking union plan
Greek banks lead fall in European bank-stability risk – HEC Lausanne study
Three months of calm, then back to the eurozone storm - Nomura