A European bank might not be the obvious choice for North America’s top research franchise, but BNP Paribas (BNPP) built a compelling case in 2025 around a simple, contrarian premise: take Donald Trump’s second-term agenda at face value.
Calvin Tse, BNPP’s head of US strategy and economics, who oversees the US Markets 360 team, explains that the house view was “to take President Trump both seriously and literally”. That stance led BNPP to become one of the first banks on Wall Street to build across-the-board tariffs, a full extension of the 2017 tax cuts, and a sharp immigration slowdown into its 2025 economic baseline – a call that proved out as the year unfolded.
The foundation for that conviction was laid at the end of 2024 with two high-profile hires: James Egelhof, formerly of the New York Fed and most recently head of macro research at Jane Street, joined as chief US economist, and Guneet Dhingra arrived from Morgan Stanley as head of US rates strategy.
Tse describes the team’s broader differentiator as structural rather than purely personnel-driven: unlike competitors who keep economics and strategy as separate, sometimes conflicting units, BNPP runs them as one cohesive desk – an approach he credits for the bank’s ability to produce fast, joined-up analysis across asset classes when markets are moving.
We have local presence in over 60 countries around the world … That allows us to tap into our expert network to help US clients understand topics better
Calvin Tse
That cohesion translated directly into client returns. The team’s early-year call to go long on 10-year TIPS bonds at 2.27% played out as inflation expectations rose, with the position closed at 1.80% for a 47 basis points gain.
In the aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, the desk’s global network flagged unusually heavy dollar positioning among international investors, prompting a short-dollar call that delivered over 5% in returns. The team’s contrarian instincts carried into 2026 as well, with an out-of-consensus call for an unchanged Federal Reserve policy stance proving accurate as the year progressed.
Client engagement extended well beyond published research. The team hosted nearly 15,000 listens across calls featuring external voices including Stephen Moore, former economic adviser to President Trump, and Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Fed, alongwith high-profile interviews with Janet Yellen and Kellyanne Conway at BNPP’s flagship Global Markets Americas and Policy & Markets conferences.
As Tse explains, BNPP’s edge lies precisely in its global reach. “We have local presence in over 60 countries around the world … That allows us to tap into our expert network to help US clients understand topics better.”
Technology investment reinforced the offering. New API infrastructure streamed publications and trade ideas in real time, while a quantitative analytics API gave clients direct access to the team’s modelling outputs. An AI-powered tool, branded internally as Alex, lets users query BNPP research directly, and a new US Equity Positioning Indicator, distributed via Bloomberg, attracted more than 500 unique client sign-ups in its first year.
With a team that has grown to around 15 strategists and economists, continued hiring into 2026, and a structural approach built on speed, depth, and cohesion rather than routine weekly output, BNPP’s US Markets 360 team has positioned itself as a genuinely differentiated research voice for clients navigating one of the most consequential US policy environments in years.
