Argentina: To the winner, the spoilt economy

By:
Rob Dwyer
Published on:

This year’s presidential election in Argentina is likely to be the first to be decided in a second and final round of voting since the constitution was changed in the 1990s. The outcome for the country – and its economy – will be as important as it will likely be close. Euromoney talks to economic advisers to the two leading candidates about how they view 2016 and beyond.

Argentina is on the brink: on the brink of a presidential election; on the brink of a hugely important choice; and quite possibly on the brink of economic and financial chaos – whoever wins. 

The August primaries – effectively a large national opinion poll for the two leading candidates – showed how successful short-term economic policy has been in creating breathing space for the 'stability’ candidate, Daniel Scioli. He won the primaries, with 38.4%, 8.3 percentage points ahead of the combined votes for the opposition Cambiemos candidates, of which Mauricio Macri becomes the official candidate in the first round of the presidential election in October. 

Polling from Ipsos in July showed that Macri has a projected second round share of the vote of 49.1%, versus Scioli’s 45.5%, but that vote is on November 22 – still some time away – and the outcome is too close to call. (A...