While eurozone politicians have been accused of enforcing a relentless policy of austerity in Europe, the European Central Bank has been credited for its extraordinary liquidity support for eurozone commercial banks and triggering a bond rally in peripheral Europe with its conditional bond-buying plan for programme countries. However, fears are growing that the ECB is falling to aid Portugal's transition to markets because of a flaw in the design of its monetary intervention programme, aimed, in part, to disguise the policymaking failures in Greece.
In other words, has the ECB sacrificed Lisbon to spare its blushes on Greece, asks Malcolm Barr of JPMorgan?
As we have reported previously, Portugal, despite its heroic fiscal and structural-reform efforts, is besieged by poor growth, a low credit rating and high indebtedness. Although market participants reckon Portugal has a chance to access international capital markets next year, amid growing investor confidence and the expiration then of the current 78 billion programme, at present short-term sovereign yields are still stubbornly high at around 5%, despite a recent rally. High borrowing costs have hiked the cost of corporate borrowing and banking liquidity.
Figures released on Tuesday throw into sharp relief the dependency of the countrys banking system on ECB life-support. According to the Bank of Portugal, domestic banks' ECB borrowing rose for a second consecutive month, up 1% to 56 billion. On the whole, Portugals economic reforms and performance have been relatively stable, compared with its shrivelling neighbour Spain at least and, more dramatically, Greece. Nevertheless, anti-austerity protests and calls to relax fiscal targets remain a frequent feature on the economic landscape.
Portugal has issued a bond swap and continues to issue treasury bills, while Ireland has managed to issue a new modestly sized transaction in the primary markets. But, thus far, the ECB has failed to intervene in the Portuguese bond market, with ECB governor Mario Draghi saying that only a country with full and complete market access, together with a macroeconomic adjustment programme, can benefit from ECB bond purchases. The reason is ostensibly to reduce moral hazard and to preserve the ECB's mandate to reduce "convertibility risk" premia, rather than monetary financing of deficits.
However, this rationale does not wash for JPMorgans Malcolm Barr. He has long suspected that the ECBs rationale has more to do with German concerns, enforcing Greek discipline, and the operational challenges of day-to-day bond purchases. Adding fuel to this argument is the fact that the ECB has made it clear sovereigns that embark on precautionary or full programmes, or the Enhanced Conditions Credit Line (ECCL), can benefit from the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), which involves ECB bond purchases in the secondary market.
In other words, the ECBs conditions for monetary intervention differ for current programme members Ireland and Portugal and prospective candidates Spain, or even Italy. To put it another way, just as Spain or Italy lose market access they could benefit from the OMT, while as Portugal successfully implements reforms and limps towards normalizing its position in international capital markets it is left in the cold.
This inconsistency highlights how the ECB is making it up on the hoof, says Barr. What you have is a set of ideas about how to intervene that are not born of a systematic consideration about sovereigns circumstances.
For Barr, Draghi, in a fascinating interview in Der Spiegel, inadvertently reveals the weakness of the ECBs approach.
|SPIEGEL: Would you really refuse to help a country that does not fulfil the reform requirements?
Draghi: Of course. If a country does not adhere to what has been agreed, we will not resume the [OMT] programme. We have announced that we will suspend operations once a programme country is under review. We will then ask the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission to assess whether the country is keeping the conditions of the agreement, and only after a positive assessment will we resume operations.
SPIEGEL: One only needs to consider the example of Greece currently to get an idea of how credible such statements are. The government in Athens repeatedly broke their commitments to the troika (made up of the IMF, ECB and European Commission) and yet they are now about to receive the next tranche of financial assistance anyway.
Draghi: That is not an appropriate comparison. Greece will not be considered at all for our programme because it is targeted exclusively at countries that finance themselves, now as before, on the capital market. This is something completely different.
Interestingly, as Barr observes, Draghis comments are valuable in what they omit. First, he does not dispute the premise of the questioners statement that the troika has been less than candid when it comes to propping up Greece and, secondly, he refuses to engage with crucial question of why the OMT was designed to benefit only those economies that benefit from full market access. For the analyst, this confirms his suspicions that the monetary programmes were designed to take into account Greece.
|A demonstrator jumps over a fire in front of the Portuguese Parliament in Lisbon during a protest. Source: Reuters |