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  • Sponsored by Scotiabank
    The new administration in Washington is pushing a pro-growth agenda, which we expect will further support the recent strength in the US dollar. Comments from the president and senior representatives of the new government have suggested some concern about the dollar’s level. We expect the dollar to remain relatively strong in the coming year, however.
  • Sponsored by Scotiabank
    Global investors are facing a conundrum; developed market bonds have never been pricier while central bank policy has never been looser. Easy monetary conditions are driving gains in equities and supporting bonds. But with the IIF noting recently that USD $10 tn worth of the world’s (i.e. developed market) government securities are now offering negative rates, the search for yield is becoming more pronounced. In the FX space, this has driven renewed interest in the carry trade. The main beneficiaries have been higher-yielding EM currencies rather than the traditional G-10 high yielders and these currencies may be the most exposed to a Fed-induced correction in the trade.
  • Sponsored by Scotiabank
    The Mexican peso seems to be a currency permanently stuck in a tequila hangover driven by underperformance. It appears to underperform in risk-off periods as well as in risk-on periods. Why is this? Should authorities do more to stabilize the currency?
  • Sponsored by Scotiabank
    Diverging monetary policy trends and asymmetric growth prospects suggest that the recent, wide swings in the USDCAD exchange rate are likely to continue in the second half of the year.