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International and high-yield exchange-traded funds will be the focus of the industry this year. Ninety-nine of the 270 ETFs launched in 2007 were either fixed-income or international, according to a study by State Street Global Advisors, and industry officials expect that proportion to rise in the 2008. "The selection of ETFs available is still only filling out," said Tom Anderson, head of strategy and research at SSgA and author of the study. He pointed to high-yield and international and suggested a mix of the two, such as international Treasury bond ETFs. Anderson said that SSgA's launches last year were almost all international or fixed-income, a trend he expects to continue this year. SSgA recently filed for two international ETFs that choose stocks by market capitalization (FA, 1/14).

Greenspan put Mark II has been put into action, but seems unlikely to reverse economic decline. The UK is as bad as the USA, but inflation is more explicitly admitted.

The brakes are on leveraged buyouts. Most deals in the US have stalled, and the few that will get done next year will be small, with very different financing.

Deutsche Bank is believed to have let three of its FX team go in London. Those said to be heading out of the door are Ray Monaghan, who was trading spot Commonwealth currencies; Peter Hooks, who was on FX sales; and Richard Salzman, in hedge fund sales. The bank declined to comment on the individuals concerned, but said: “Global Markets is making adjustments to individual business lines in order to re-focus resources toward those areas with the greatest growth potential. Fewer than 300 people will be affected globally.”

Today the 30th Euromoney FX poll is launched. As one hedge fund manager said to me, this is the time of year that he suddenly finds he’s got lots of new best friends.

I sent an email the other day to my old mucker Danny LaVecchia, executive managing director North America and global FX products at BGC, asking if I could have a photo of him in a hat. I wanted to use it as a currency pair.

Even as the yen strengthens against the dollar to levels not seen for a couple of years, Japanese retail punters continue to sell it. According to Lee Hardman, a currency economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, this poses “a considerable risk of capitulation if retail investors suffer further losses.” Hardman argues that the case for putting on the carry trade is weak and that several key cross levels are fast approaching. It will be interesting to watch.

The bulletin boards have been awash with tales of the self-labelled Felix Homogratus, aka Felix the Bastard, but whose real name is Dmitri Chavkerov.

The rumour mill in New York is suggesting, once again, that GFI and Tullett will soon merge in some shape or form.

One of my predictions this year is that the ECNs are going to face a new level of competition from the banks and a resurgent EBS.

BM&F, the Brazilian derivatives exchange, has announced that it will introduce electronic trading for USD/BRL. The venture is a joint initiative with the Brazilian Federation of Banks and the Central Bank of Brazil. In an external memo, BM&F says it is currently responsible for the registration and settlement of about 95% of transactions in the domestic USD/BRL market. Around 85% of this is traded OTC.

I’m not sure how much of a market remains, but CLS and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) have successfully launched a settlement service for the FX transactions generated as a result of OTC credit derivatives transactions.