Grexit: special focus

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The deal to cut Greece’s debt might be underestimated
December 2012
After each move from eurozone policymakers, the sceptics come out with the verdict: it won’t work. But what if, with the latest deal to cut Greece’s debt, this time it really is different?

Greece's $600bn gas reserves to fuel recovery?
November 2012
If there was ever a flicker of hope that Greece could tackle its colossal public debt and return to some form of financial stability then perhaps the country’s estimated $600 billion of natural gas reserves is it.

Greece's debt tragedy - the need for official sector writedowns
November 2012
Default, massive buybacks or official-sector writedowns are needed for Greece to reach any reasonable level of debt sustainability. The 120% debt-to-GDP target by 2020 is wide of the mark.

Did the ECB throw Portugal under a bus thanks to Greece?
November 2012
The ECB appears to be reluctant to aid Portugal's transition to markets because of a flaw in the design of its monetary intervention programme, aimed, in part, to disguise the policymaking failures in Greece, reckons JPMorgan. The Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) policy is "inconsistent" since it discriminates against current programme members without "full and open" market access.

Who wants to invest in Greece?
November 2012
The Greek government narrowly pushed through a law ending the government's obligation to own stakes in former state-owned companies, but only confident investors should buy distressed Greek assets, explain analysts.

So... what about Greece?
September 2012
The ECB’s bond-buying plan could be the glue that holds the eurozone together, binding in troubled sovereigns such as Spain and Italy – but not everyone will be saved. Capital Economics argues that a Greek exit is imminent.

Just how broke is Greece?
June 2012
On the face of it, Greece is marching towards insolvency but its creditors are likely to stay the course, for now, says Credit Suisse. But the math of macroeconomic adjustment looks ugly.

Greek private sector lending threatens Cyprus’s banks
June 2012
While Cyprus and its banking sector are struggling to deal with losses from Greek sovereign bonds, a bigger risk looms: a wave of non-performing loans from the private sector that could savage the capital and liquidity position of Cypriot banks in Greece.

Greek rally - dead on arrival
June 2012
Voters in Greece made the "right" decision, supposedly, but markets are still in free-fall.

Electoral math - it's all Greek to me
June 2012
With Greece's make-or-break election on Sunday, let's take a look at what pollsters - and bookmakers - are saying about the battle for the eurozone's soul.

Abigail on Grexit
June 2012
As if Dimon’s fall from grace wasn’t bad enough, markets are also battling with Grexit demons. ‘Grexit’ is a new word that has entered the financial lexicon along with ‘financial repression’ and ‘the great recession’.

Greece sovereign debt restructuring was a "success" - Lemierre
June 2012
Jean Lemierre, the current advisor to the chairman of BNP Paribas, struck a contrarian tone when he branded the Greek deal a "success" while the IIF sounded the alarm over the precedent set by the subordination of private creditors in favour of the official sector, in comments at its spring conference

Southeastern Europe: Greece sparks fear of new Balkans credit crunch
June 2012
Preparations for Greek banks’ withdrawal; Romanian and Serbian currencies at record lows


Before May 2012


Grexit ‘would not have a lasting effect on FX market volumes’
A Greek exit from the euro would likely cause a temporary surge in trading volumes, but the longer-term impact on global FX trading could be less than one might expect, according to Greenwich Associates.

How Greece can leave the euro without leaving the euro
Deutsche Bank’s Mayer has a plan for Greece to take a ‘temporary breather’

Banks’ contingency plans in the spotlight as eurozone crisis deepens
The failure of EU summit leaders to craft a new rescue package has heightened fears that multinational banks with peripheral European exposures are ill-prepared for a Greek exit

ECB: Don’t hold your breath for LTRO 3
ECB’s Praet says liquidity provision “a delicate balancing act”

China's economic slowdown - something else for Germany to worry about
China's economic slowdown will exact a heavy economic toll on global demand. Although Beijing has many weapons it can mobilise, its slowdown comes at an inauspicious time for Germany

EUR positioning leaves door open to euro slide 

The latest CFTC data showed EUR short positioning was at record levels, but proprietary positioning trackers of leading FX banks tell a different story.

Eurozone divorce: sizing up deposit outflow risk
Urgent steps are needed to craft an EU-deposit guarantee scheme that has teeth, analysts have said, as market attention turns to deposit outflow risk in peripheral Europe.

Spain is the new Ireland, subordinated bank debt edition 
Investors trying to understand recent developments in the troubled Spanish banking sector could do a lot worse than looking to Ireland as a comparison, according to Barclays Capital.

Greece exit contagion watch, more scary facts
Although international banks have manageable direct exposure to Greece, banks' shares can go much lower and deposit outflows from peripheral European banks' have barely begun.

Greece proving to be sideshow for German-powered euro
The chance of a Greek exit from the euro is on the rise, and so the question for investors has turned from why is the single currency so strong, to how low can it trade and how fast. So far, the answer has been not much lower and not very quickly, considering the future of the euro project could be on the line.

Back to the stone age: Venezuela now much safer than Greece
Greece's collapse in our proprietary political risk scoring is without historic precedent; the country is now rated below Venezuela, Belize and Papua New Guinea.

IIF sees dire consequences of disorderly Greek default
“It would immediately unwind what positive market sentiment remains about the adequacy of the financial support mechanism that Europe has put in place." The Institute of International Finance delivers a dire warning of what is to come, if a disorderly default of Greece were to occur

Portugal: The domino that should not fall
Some have called the markets’ punishment of Portugal unfair – after all, it has kept up its side of the bargain with the troika – but NPLs continue to dog the banks. Could the struggle to find a solution at home come from opportunities abroad?