Is agribusiness turning Brazil’s banks inward?

Trade and currency wars have boosted Brazil’s agribusiness sector in the past couple of years. Higher prices for soft commodities have, however, accelerated a trend that has been noticeable for many years: the country’s inward focus.

Brazil’s GDP should grow by about 1% in 2023. But this belies wide discrepancies across the country. For example, states such as Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Minas Gerais have been growing at an average of 5% for the past five years, while the traditional engines of growth – particularly São Paulo – have been running at about half that rate.

In May, UBS BB raised its estimates for 2023 GDP growth dramatically – to 1.5%

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