Macaskill on markets: Bank shares and the Charlie Brown trap

Bank shares have bounced back from recent lows in early 2019, but investors tempted to bet on a sustained rally risk yet another year of disappointment.

The Peanuts comic strip features a recurring gag where Charlie Brown is convinced to run up and kick a football, only for Lucy to pull the ball away at the last moment. Investors tempted to take a punt on a recovery in bank share prices can be forgiven for worrying that a bet on a prolonged rise in values will prove to be a similar triumph of hope over experience.

A global slump in bank stocks in December was followed in January by poor quarterly trading results from most firms, while a partial US government shutdown prevented the SEC from approving IPO paperwork, ensuring that the year in deal making got off to a slow start.

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