FICC trading heads not celebrating yet

When banks get around to reporting first-quarter 2018 results in April (the US banks) and May (the Europeans), it is already safe to say that their fixed income, currencies and commodities numbers will look particularly good.

Higher volatility in the first two months, driven by uncertainty about the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate rises this year and next, has been exactly the kind that banks like best: sufficient to provoke a revival in volume of trades among clients taking divergent views; not so severe as to leave them too scared to do anything. 

That’s a help to all banks’ market sales and trading businesses which are now almost entirely driven by client activity levels rather than proprietary position taking, other than that by being essentially long of inventory, most benefit from the rising book value of stock held for sale in bull markets.

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