The trend is your friend. Until it isn’t. Sometimes, FX moves look very easy to predict, but recent gyrations have completely baffled me and, it seems, many market participants too.
Once again though, the old reverse barometer has proved the most accurate predictor. This time it is reports of the USD’s imminent demise that have proved premature. But has the tide turned? Commerzbank Corporates & Markets says: “In the medium term, we are very much dollar bulls.
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