Beware the China bulls

China sceptics think a dangerous asset bubble could be building.

A stronger than expected economic recovery has led to much optimism among China-watchers, with HSBC’s Qu Hongbin, for example, raising his 2009 GDP growth forecast to 8.5% from 8.1% on the strength of robust investment growth and steady consumer spending. Foreign and domestic investors seem to share that optimism. The authorities are allowing more firms to invest in financial markets: fund management consultancy Z-Ben Advisors reports that $1.5 billion-worth of quota for qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) has been allocated after a 17-month moratorium, with the backlog of 20 quota applicants to be cleared by the end of 2010.

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