FX carry trade unwinding: Don’t play trader

As readers will be aware, the global unwinding of the FX carry trade has led to some extreme bouts of volatility. This appears to have generally been good for a lot of banks and other market makers; but it has been absolutely catastrophic for many of their clients, especially in some emerging markets.

There will inevitably be investigations into what has gone on and it seems certain there will be accusations of mis-selling.

For instance, in Mexico there has been substantial fallout from the collapse of Controladora Comercial Mexicana (Comercial). This was the country’s third largest retailer in terms of sales, and it operated numerous supermarkets and restaurants. It also put on a lot of carry trade positions using options. As these went horribly wrong, Comercial is reported to have taken a $2 billion hit – not enough to win our new version of Go for broke, but it is still extremely sizeable.

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