Ecuador’s outstanding debt: To pay or not to pay

In the month after populist leftist Rafael Correa took power in January, the market in Ecuador’s global bonds went crazy. Correa made noises about defaulting on Ecuador’s debt from the beginning of his presidential campaign, but bond traders generally discounted that rhetoric as political posturing, and Ecuador’s benchmark 2030 global bonds remained near par until after the inauguration.

When the rhetoric didn’t go away, however, the bonds started to fall – and then Correa’s finance minister, Ricardo Patino, held a disastrous meeting in Quito with Citibank clients, in which he talked openly of offering them perhaps 40% on the dollar in a future restructuring. The price of the bonds fell to the 70s, and the markets braced themselves for a default on February 15, when a $135 million coupon payment was due on the 2030s.

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