Bond Outlook August 3rd

More rises in the USD yield curve is resulting from RMB unpegging. Rebalancing has now started and but needs the US housing bubble to deflate to cut excess consumer spending.

Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, August 3rd 2005]

A fortnight ago, in response to our own question about whither US inflation and yields, we came down in favour of believing that both would climb. The subsequent unpegging of the RMB rather reinforces that view. Of course the 2.1% revaluation in itself is negligible, except that is likely to be the first of many such small steps in coming months. Then higher import prices will begin to weigh on US inflation.

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