A mini boom bust cycle

The start of the political season in Russia has capped the wild upswing in the country's equity market but not brought share prices crashing to the ground. Predictions of quiet growth based on a growing equity culture still seem apt.

“LESS RISK, LOWER RETURN” – that was the title of one Russian investment bank’s prognosis for portfolio investments in Russia in 2003. The argument that Russia had emerged from the wild fluctuations of the 1990s (and so triple-digit returns) and was approaching a fair-value equilibrium was appealing. Once again, though, that line of reasoning seems to have been completely wrong.

The leading RTS (Russian Trading System) indicator has bounced about almost as much over the first half of this year as it has always done.

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