Since the end of October, following the Bali nightclub bombing, Indonesia has found itself in a group of countries that even Afghanistan doesn’t quite belong to. Although the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office seems to think that parts of Kabul are safe to visit, it advises against all travel to Indonesia. And that slaps the same warning sticker on Indonesia as on Burundi (civil war) Liberia (civil war) Somalia (anarchy and kidnappings) and Iraq (self-explanatory). The pleadings of Indonesian politicians that their country is not a terrorist-infested, extremist Muslim state have so far fallen on deaf ears.
But the fact that the country is on a list of danger spots is good news for security specialists. “Is it mission critical?” asks a man named “Just call me Craig” when Euromoney reaches him by phone. If it isn’t, he says, maybe don’t make the trip.
Craig protects foreign bankers and businessmen. Morgan Stanley is supposedly a major client. He’s been working in Indonesia for three years and admits that this year has been quite busy. In an attempt to drum up yet more business he adds: “It’s coming up to Ramadan too. And there’s always a spike in crime in this period. Where are you staying?”
He’s obviously used to playing on the fears of potential clients. When the Grand Hyatt is mentioned, there’s a sharp intake of breath, followed by three or four tuts. It’s probably accompanied by a slow shake of the head. In Craig’s professional opinion, the Suharto-owned establishment is not a wise choice and he quickly recommends another hotel.
Economic terrorism
After creating a rather grim image of Jakarta, Craig thinks it’s time to discuss rates. He casually drops the information that to get a nervous banker safely from the airport to the hotel – roughly a 35-minute journey – will cost $150. “But the length of the journey depends on if we run into any trouble,” he adds cheerily. And the super deluxe package of all-day protection will cost $450. When you land at the airport and travel through Jakarta by taxi – without Craig’s reassuring presence – the first thing you notice is the lack of foreigners. If terrorists have an economic goal to drive western visitors and money out of a Muslim state, sadly they’re winning. Locals now seem genuinely surprised that anyone would travel to their country, though they are quick to point out that Indonesia is actually still safe. On the surface the city does seem calm. As yet no hand grenades are being thrown in the central business district, a claim those working and living in the Philippines’ chief city Manila can’t make. And despite the arrest of Muslim extremist Abu Bakar Bashir, for allegedly organizing the Bali bombing, further acts of violence haven’t taken place.
But the hotels are empty. Room prices have been slashed. One night in the Hilton is now just $50. This includes security – of a sort. All cars approaching the entrance are checked by bored security guards, who spring to life when the metal detector they are carrying suddenly beeps when it comes near the car. They pop open the boot, have a quick glance, chatter with friends and wave you on.
Bankers based in Hong Kong and Singapore are giving Indonesia a wide berth. Their institutions have directed that no-one will travel there unless it’s absolutely mission critical. Bank spokesmen, though, claim they’re still totally committed to the country, albeit from a distance.
Money is seeping out of the country. The equity market, until recently one of the best performers in the world this year, has slipped from a 2002 high of 551 points to 381. Economists forecast GDP will fall by 4%.
Knowing the seriousness of the problem they face, corporates and local financial institutions have outgrown spin. Indeed they are unusually candid. “We are becoming irrelevant,” says a securities banker. “And even if we lobby about our situation, it’s still not enough to make investors reinvest. We’ll just be seen as noisy and irrelevant instead.”
A government adviser is animated when discussing his country’s plight. “Everything comes back to Bali so we will have to aggressively push our message that it’s business as usual.” he says. He points out that it’s not just Indonesia’s responsibility to paint a brighter picture. He wants to see a more united front presented by neighbours. “It’s important that all countries in the region understand that they could be in the same position,” he says. “Unfortunately, I think some countries believe we are at the back of the boat and they are at the front. Who cares? If the boat sinks we all go down together.”
At the Asean meeting in Cambodia last month, delegates spoke of solidarity. “We have never really seen anything like it before,” says the adviser. He adds: “This is a great opportunity to prove they can do something. But I am worried about how long the motivation will last and wonder how long it’s going to be before something else bad comes down the pipe.”
If that’s the case Craig could have another bumper year next year.
