Promises based on forecasts stretch credibility

Portugal’s new Social Democrat government is committed to reducing to zero the public deficit, now perilously close to the EU’s 3% ceiling, and increasing GDP growth by at least 50%. But do the figures add up, and can investors be persuaded to bankroll economic growth?

AMONG EU COUNTRIES, Portugal boasts one of the lowest rates of unemployment – a continuing legacy, one might think, of the boom-time late 1990s. But scratching beneath the surface reveals quite a different picture. “We have 4.5% unemployment but that’s an illusion,” says a banker. “There should be more unemployment.” With a public deficit already close to 3%, that’s a worrying thought. During the years of socialist rule, from 1995 to 2001, the number employed by the civil service rose to excessive levels.

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