When default is not the end

The spilling over of Nasdaq volatility into emerging-market bonds has not amused their issuers. How can the fortunes of an internet start-up in Atlanta be intelligently compared with those of a tropical commodity producer, they ask, never mind that one is a company, the other a country?

At first glance the link in investors’ minds between the two asset classes does display arbitrariness. If investors can’t distinguish between Palm Pilots and palm oil what hope is there for eYcient capital allocation? Deeper investigation, however, suggests portfolio managers are not that muddle-headed.

What tech stocks and developing country bonds have in common is many new speculative-grade issuers, valuation problems and a growing default rate. The main diVerence is that until recently investors were wildly optimistic about growth prospects for tech stocks and deeply pessimistic about emerging markets.

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