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Global Economic Projections, September 1999

Economic projections methodology

September 1, 1999

Economic projections methodology

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
Rank Average performance Economic performance Expected change GNP growth (%)
Sept Mar 2000-2001 2000 2001 2000-2001 2000 2001
1 5 Luxembourg 79.21 79.57 78.86 -0.7 3.1 3.4
2 1 Ireland 78.43 77.68 79.18 1.5 6.6 6.5
3 6 Australia 75.65 75.57 75.73 0.2 3.1 3.1
4 7 United States 74.73 74.51 74.94 0.4 2.5 2.5
5 3 Finland 74.16 72.89 75.43 2.5 3.3 3.3
6 4 Canada 73.42 72.79 74.05 1.3 2.8 2.8
7 13 Germany 72.52 72.41 72.64 0.2 2.5 2.6
8 21 United Kingdom 72.32 71.70 72.95 1.3 2.2 2.5
9 9 Sweden 72.24 71.91 72.57 0.7 2.9 2.9
10 31 Singapore 72.01 71.37 72.64 1.3 4.3 4.8
11 2 Netherlands 71.67 71.36 71.97 0.6 2.6 2.7
12 15 Spain 71.24 71.29 71.18 -0.1 3.3 3.2
13 22 Taiwan 71.21 70.54 71.88 1.3 5.2 5.1
14 16 Austria 70.44 70.49 70.38 -0.1 2.6 2.8
15 8 France 70.37 70.54 70.20 -0.3 2.7 2.8
16 17 Switzerland 70.36 68.99 71.73 2.7 1.9 2.0
17 11 Norway 70.23 68.97 71.50 2.5 2.0 2.5
18 14 New Zealand 70.19 70.20 70.18 0.0 2.9 2.8
19 10 Denmark 70.12 69.18 71.07 1.9 2.1 2.4
20 23 Greece 68.10 67.63 68.56 0.9 3.4 3.6
21 20 Italy 68.06 67.75 68.36 0.6 2.2 2.4
22 19 Portugal 67.52 67.55 67.49 -0.1 3.2 3.4
23 18 Belgium 66.13 65.85 66.41 0.6 2.4 2.5
24 27 Iceland 65.54 65.68 65.40 -0.3 4.1 3.5
25 29 Poland 64.93 64.56 65.31 0.8 4.4 4.6
26 24 United Arab Emirates 64.92 63.80 66.04 2.2 2.8 3.8
27 36 South Korea 64.85 64.33 65.36 1.0 5.2 5.0
28 34 Malta 64.10 64.37 63.83 -0.5 3.2 2.0
29 30 Hungary 63.01 62.72 63.30 0.6 4.2 4.3
30 33 Slovenia 60.97 61.00 60.94 -0.1 3.2 3.5
31 46 Chile 60.22 57.94 62.49 4.5 3.7 4.3
32 48 Japan 60.20 57.16 63.23 6.1 0.5 1.6
33 40 Hong Kong 59.73 56.73 62.73 6.0 2.4 3.2
34 45 Israel 59.59 58.58 60.60 2.0 3.1 3.4
35 47 Qatar 58.76 58.04 59.48 1.4 5.2 3.8
36 51 Botswana 58.42 59.16 57.68 -1.5 5.4 5.2
37 38 Cyprus 58.23 58.03 58.43 0.4 3.6 4.0
38 35 China 57.15 56.45 57.86 1.4 6.4 6.5
39 49 Mexico 57.11 55.92 58.30 2.4 3.8 3.8
40 53 Saudi Arabia 56.90 56.80 57.00 0.2 1.7 2.0
41 79 Tunisia 56.64 56.08 57.20 1.1 5.7 5.7
42 67 Kuwait 56.48 56.00 56.95 1.0 1.3 1.8
43 59 Thailand 56.34 54.04 58.64 4.6 3.3 4.3
44 43 Czech Republic 56.27 54.85 57.70 2.9 1.5 2.4
45 26 Bahrain 55.58 55.24 55.92 0.7 1.4 1.8
46 74 Malaysia 55.58 54.37 56.79 2.4 3.4 3.4
47 54 Estonia 54.74 53.29 56.20 2.9 3.7 4.7
48 50 Philippines 54.64 53.89 55.40 1.5 3.5 4.1
49 – Puerto Rico 54.60 54.00 55.20 1.2 2.7 2.7
50 44 Jordan 54.54 53.92 55.16 1.2 2.3 2.3
51 65 Egypt 54.50 54.70 54.30 -0.4 5.3 5.4
52 141 Mauritius 54.10 53.00 55.20 2.2 4.8 4.5
53 41 Barbados 53.60 50.00 57.20 7.2 3.0 3.0
54 87 South Africa 53.57 52.02 55.12 3.1 2.9 3.1
55 59 Trinidad & Tobago 53.53 52.25 54.80 2.6 4.0 4.0
56 94 Côte d’Ivoire 53.38 52.44 54.32 1.9 4.9 4.8
57 25 Bermuda 53.20 52.00 54.40 2.4 – –
58 83 Morocco 53.04 52.24 53.84 1.6 4.0 4.3
59 72 Argentina 52.94 50.09 55.79 5.7 1.4 3.3
60 73 India 52.02 50.83 53.20 2.4 5.3 5.2
61 12 Brunei 52.00 51.60 52.40 0.8 -3.0 –
62 123 Brazil 50.93 48.61 53.24 4.6 2.0 3.5
63 66 Slovak Republic 50.53 48.12 52.93 4.8 1.2 2.3
64= 57 Latvia 50.50 49.12 51.88 2.8 2.8 4.2
64= – St Vincent & the Grenadines 50.50 44.00 57.00 13.0 5.0 5.0
66 75 Peru 50.47 49.13 51.80 2.7 4.2 4.5
67 – St Lucia 49.90 43.20 56.60 13.4 3.0 3.5
68 64 Lithuania 49.79 48.42 51.16 2.7 3.6 4.6
69 28 Panama 49.75 48.20 51.30 3.1 4.0 4.3
70 76 Costa Rica 49.72 48.76 50.68 1.9 4.8 4.5
71 97 El Salvador 49.60 49.00 50.20 1.2 3.2 2.9
72 62 Oman 49.32 48.52 50.12 1.6 2.4 2.5
73 85 Sri Lanka 49.06 48.24 49.88 1.6 4.8 4.8
74 32 Bahamas 48.83 45.60 52.07 6.5 3.3 3.0
75 – Solomon Islands 48.80 48.00 49.60 1.6 – –
76 90 Namibia 48.68 49.20 48.15 -1.1 3.3 3.0
77 99 Senegal 48.30 47.30 49.30 2.0 5.8 5.5
78 55 Croatia 48.11 46.00 50.23 4.2 1.2 2.7
79= 121 Kenya 48.10 47.60 48.60 1.0 3.4 3.7
79= 92 Uganda 48.10 47.70 48.50 0.8 6.8 6.0
81 102 Gabon 48.03 47.80 48.25 0.5 2.3 1.8
82= – Belize 48.00 48.00 48.00 0.0 – –
82= – New Caledonia 48.00 48.00 48.00 0.0 – –
84= 59 Dominican Republic 47.40 46.40 48.40 2.0 5.3 5.0
84= 39 Fiji 47.40 46.80 48.00 1.2 3.5 –
86 81 Kyrghystan 47.13 46.67 47.60 0.9 2.0 1.8
87 69 Uruguay 47.10 46.20 48.00 1.8 2.8 3.6
88 – Armenia 46.73 46.13 47.33 1.2 6.0 5.0
89 78 Turkey 46.46 46.06 46.87 0.8 3.1 3.7
90 56 FYR Macedonia 46.40 46.00 46.80 0.8 1.0 –
91 103 Bulgaria 45.89 41.96 49.82 7.9 2.4 3.1
92 124 Ghana 45.45 44.40 46.50 2.1 4.6 4.1
93 58 Surinam 45.40 44.40 46.40 2.0 -0.5 2.0
94= – Tonga 45.20 44.00 46.40 2.4 – –
94= – Vanuatu 45.20 44.00 46.40 2.4 – –
94= – Western Samoa 45.20 44.00 46.40 2.4 – –
97 37 Syria 45.10 44.80 45.40 0.6 2.3 2.0
98 41 Antigua & Barbuda 45.00 40.00 50.00 10.0 5.0 4.5
99 70 Mali 44.87 45.67 44.07 -1.6 5.0 5.5
100 88 Uzhbekistan 44.73 43.00 46.45 3.5 1.9 3.0
101 101 Colombia 44.58 42.63 46.53 3.9 1.3 2.8
102 76 Papua New Guinea 44.45 43.80 45.10 1.3 2.5 3.0
103 – Seychelles 44.35 43.00 45.70 2.7 1.5 2.0
104 110 Vietnam 44.16 43.69 44.63 0.9 4.3 4.5
105 86 Guatemala 44.15 43.75 44.55 0.8 4.1 3.8
106 95 Iran 44.10 43.20 45.00 1.8 1.1 2.5
107 105 Kazakhstan 43.91 43.11 44.71 1.6 1.5 2.5
108 100 Lebanon 43.63 42.53 44.73 2.2 1.9 2.8
109 79 Bolivia 43.24 42.56 43.92 1.4 4.4 4.7
110 117 Tanzania 43.23 42.50 43.95 1.5 3.7 4.0
111 97 Algeria 43.08 42.15 44.00 1.9 2.7 2.5
112 114 Cameroon 42.95 43.00 42.90 -0.1 4.6 4.0
113 84 Burkina Faso 42.90 42.73 43.07 0.3 5.1 5.2
114 107 Georgia 42.70 42.05 43.35 1.3 5.4 5.2
115 112 Indonesia 42.67 39.80 45.55 5.7 2.4 3.1
116 93 Azerbaijan 42.32 41.88 42.76 0.9 6.2 5.8
117 95 Bangladesh 42.25 42.05 42.45 0.4 4.7 5.1
118 68 Yemen 41.65 41.25 42.05 0.8 3.3 4.0
119 – Dominica 41.25 32.00 50.50 18.5 2.0 2.5
120 52 Guyana 41.08 39.47 42.70 3.2 0.8 1.3
121 – Maldives 40.80 40.00 41.60 1.6 – –
122 113 Honduras 40.73 40.10 41.35 1.3 1.2 3.5
123 91 Haiti 40.60 40.40 40.80 0.4 2.5 2.5
124 125 Jamaica 40.18 39.55 40.80 1.3 -0.4 0.7
125 120 Venezuela 40.14 39.40 40.88 1.5 0.8 2.6
126 115 Paraguay 39.72 39.20 40.24 1.0 1.6 2.6
127 116 Mozambique 39.68 38.45 40.90 2.5 7.3 6.0
128 130 Madagascar 39.25 38.75 39.75 1.0 4.6 4.6
129 – Grenada 39.00 32.00 46.00 14.0 4.0 4.5
130= 132 Ecuador 38.93 37.53 40.33 2.8 2.5 3.0
130= 70 Togo 38.93 37.93 39.93 2.0 2.0 3.5
132 108 Mongolia 38.80 38.40 39.20 0.8 – –
133 148 Nicaragua 38.50 36.50 40.50 4.0 4.9 4.0
134 88 Libya 38.38 37.75 39.00 1.3 3.1 2.4
135 122 Nigeria 38.34 36.92 39.76 2.8 2.5 2.8
136 127 Romania 37.84 33.52 42.16 8.6 0.0 1.6
137 119 Pakistan 37.55 37.25 37.85 0.6 3.7 3.9
138 146 Somalia 37.40 36.80 38.00 1.2 – –
139 138 Malawi 37.18 36.25 38.10 1.9 4.9 5.0
140 111 Turkmenistan 36.80 37.00 36.60 -0.4 4.5 2.5
141 – Bhutan 36.40 36.00 36.80 0.8 – –
142= 62 Gambia 36.33 36.33 36.33 0.0 5.0 5.0
142= 104 Niger 36.33 36.33 36.33 0.0 4.0 3.5
144 136 Albania 36.28 36.50 36.05 -0.5 5.0 3.0
145 – Benin 36.25 35.00 37.50 2.5 5.2 5.3
146 128 Ethiopia 36.10 35.80 36.40 0.6 – –
147= 82 Guinea 35.93 35.60 36.27 0.7 4.9 4.9
147= 147 Russia 35.93 34.60 37.27 2.7 -0.2 1.2
149 118 Nepal 35.80 34.80 36.80 2.0 4.0 –
150 126 Zambia 35.01 32.56 37.45 4.9 4.1 3.8
151 109 Congo 34.57 34.40 34.73 0.3 3.8 3.9
152 137 Ukraine 33.74 32.27 35.20 2.9 -0.1 1.1
153= 141 Tajikistan 33.50 32.67 34.33 1.7 3.3 5.0
153= 140 Zimbabwe 33.50 32.20 34.80 2.6 1.3 1.2
155 150 Mauritania 33.23 33.33 33.13 -0.2 3.6 3.5
156 – Swaziland 33.10 32.50 33.70 1.2 1.5 2.0
157 106 Sudan 33.00 32.60 33.40 0.8 5.3 5.5
158 129 Myanmar 32.62 31.96 33.28 1.3 2.7 3.3
159 133 Cuba 32.37 30.87 33.87 3.0 4.3 4.2
160 – Macau 32.00 32.00 32.00 0.0 – –
161 – Cape Verde 31.15 30.50 31.80 1.3 2.9 3.0
162 145 Belarus 30.58 30.87 30.30 -0.6 1.7 2.5
163 139 Moldova 30.13 30.00 30.25 0.3 -2.7 -0.5
164 – Central African Republic 30.00 30.00 30.00 0.0 4.7 5.1
165 134 Angola 29.83 27.45 32.20 4.8 4.5 6.0
166 131 Guinea-Bissau 29.43 29.27 29.60 0.3 0.5 3.0
167 134 Cambodia 28.60 28.40 28.80 0.4 5.0 –
168= – Chad 28.00 28.00 28.00 0.0 5.5 5.6
168= – Laos 28.00 28.00 28.00 0.0 – –
168= – Lesotho 28.00 27.00 29.00 2.0 4.3 3.8
171 143 Yugoslavia 27.80 27.20 28.40 1.2 -7.3 5.0
172 153 Democratic Republic of Congo 27.27 27.20 27.33 0.1 2.0 2.0
173 149 Liberia 27.00 26.60 27.40 0.8 0.0 0.0
174 144 Iraq 26.70 25.00 28.40 3.4 6.7 8.0
175 – Afghanistan 25.60 25.60 25.60 0.0 – –
176 – Equatorial Guinea 24.50 24.00 25.00 1.0 – –
177 151 Sierra Leone 24.43 23.10 25.75 2.7 0.0 2.0
178 – Djibouti 23.60 23.20 24.00 0.8 – –
179 – Sao Tome & Principe 22.75 22.50 23.00 0.5 2.0 2.0
180 – Rwanda 19.50 19.50 19.50 0.0 3.0 3.0
181 152 North Korea 12.20 11.80 12.60 0.8 -3.0 -2.0
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