The key to prospects for world growth in 1999 is Japan. I expect the US economy to slow during the year and the core of Europe to grow by less than 2%. So the OECD as a whole is unlikely to achieve even 1% real growth this year unless Japan picks up.
Is Japan’s deep depression showing signs of ending? No way! Monthly unemployment data have recorded successive post-war highs. Industrial output fell 8% year-on-year in October and retail sales by 5.5%.
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