World Government Bond Forecasts: Denmark

A FORECAST BY CARNEGIE BANK A/S

Low-growth scenario until 1997

The economic recovery in Denmark, which started in the autumn of 1993, reached its peak in the summer of 1994 and has since lost steam. We expect the drop from high to low growth to remain at least until early 1997. Private consumption will be hurt by deteriorating consumer confidence and only a small rise in real disposable income. The poor export performance in 1995 will continue in 1996. In 1997, however, higher international economic growth and lower domestic wage increases may result in a considerable rise in exports.

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