EMU: postponed by common agreement?

I've said it before in this column: the 1999 date for European monetary union will be postponed. I'm saying it again because the chorus of Europe's politicians proclaiming that EMU will happen on time is deafening. But I think postponement will happen, by common agreement of the 15 member states, probably before the end of this year.

EMU was always a political rather than a purely economic project. Although it carries clear economic advantages for companies trading across frontiers, EMU’s main aim was to prevent a greater Germany from transforming its economic might into political influence throughout Europe, by removing the Deutschmark as an instrument of Bonn’s national policy. Chancellor Kohl has gone along with the project because he belongs to that generation of Germans who instinctively believe that, without a united Europe, their own country will become aggressive again.

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