Euro government bonds: The shape of things to come

A single European currency looks increasingly likely to be instituted on schedule on January 1 1999. With this in mind government bond strategists are trying to predict the likely shape of the euro market. A few patterns, such as the transition towards a credit-driven market, are emerging. But much still hinges on decisions yet to be taken. Philip Eade reports

When politicians from the so-called Club Med countries of southern Europe say they intend to qualify in time for the first round of the EU’s economic and monetary union (Emu) ­ due to start, as the Bank of England has taken to saying, in just 550 business days’ time ­ it’s time for the financial markets to sit up and take notice. That they have done so seems clear from recent movements in bond market indices and the growing demand for advice and information on the likely shape of new markets.

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