FX comment: Where is the EU going?

Monday dawned with news of the dramatic measures announced by the EU and the ECB to stave off further debt-crisis contagion. EUR/USD rallied from a low of 1.2520 on Sunday evening to as high as 1.3093 early Monday before retracing by nearly 50% to 1.2820 by the afternoon; by Tuesday afternoon EUR/USD had drifted below 1.2700. The question is: “Where now?” The answer, with a couple of exceptions, is: “Lower.”

Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ published a note early on Monday whose title made his opinion plain enough: Massive policy shift will only temporarily lift EUR. Halpenny highlighted the about-turn by the ECB as early as Thursday about a bond purchase programme and the panic (my word) reinstatement of fixed-rate tenders and dollar liquidity swap lines to conclude: “These are clearly astonishing shifts from both eurozone officials and from the ECB that appear a clear attempt to shock the financial markets back into normal functioning.

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