Oil: Near-term easing in geopolitical tension – BCA Research

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Possible easing in geopolitical tensions adds to near-term downside risks to Brent crude oil prices, but this does not change our bullish cyclical view, says BCA Research.


We previously thought that Israel would ramp up its war rhetoric so that the U.S. and Europe would continue to pressure Iran on the nuclear program. Such rhetoric has increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices in the past.

But Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has now said that he agrees with U.S. President Obama’s assessment that it would take Iran longer than a year to produce a nuclear weapon. This pushes back the Israeli ‘red line’ to Spring/Summer 2014.

The bottom line is that Netanyahu has agreed to give the U.S. more time to use diplomacy and sanctions to force Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program. Tail risk of oil and gasoline price spikes this summer has been reduced.

This post was originally published by the BCA Research blog.