FX: Weaker sterling here to stay
From strong and stable to weak and jittery, the pound bore the brunt of the surprise UK general election result, but despite May’s quick move to form a working coalition government, sterling will likely stay soft, say analysts.
Brexit: Relocating? Let me call my cousin
The one-year anniversary of the UK vote to leave the European Union is fast approaching and still most banks clustered in London haven’t disclosed plans to relocate staff to deal with EU clients, senior management to answer to regulators, or even any support staff.
Banking: The UK versus Europe
Against the tide: Election summer surprises
Surprise snap election rocks UK risk profile
Fears over access to capital push UK's country-risk score to new low
Economic and political analysts are becoming more concerned about the UK’s future access to capital markets after Brexit, a fear that helped push the UK down one place on ECR's combined country risk scorecard in the first quarter of 2017.
ECR survey results Q1 2017: Europe marches on without the UK
Brexit-related FX mis-selling claims hitting hurdles
Brexit is an apt end to RBS’s futile restructuring
Williams & Glyn fits a pattern of how mishandled dealings with the UK government and the EU have overshadowed the banks’ wider recovery. Now, as the end to an epic restructuring nears, Brexit begins.
UK banking: No wish for post-Brexit deregulation
Private equity: The beauty of being Brexit-proof
It is not only banks that are wearily trying to assess the impact that the UK leaving the EU will have on their businesses – private equity firms are getting increasingly concerned too.
There may be yet some good news for UK based financial services in the wake of Brexit, if the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (Econ), a powerful committee within the EU Parliament, gets a draft resolution now being considered through to a plenary vote in its current form.
FX: Bad news better than no news as sterling surges on hard Brexit talk
On a day many expected would see the pound sink to new depths, the currency instead responded to news that the UK would be leaving the single market by posting its best performance since the referendum – but whether the day marked a turning point or a mere relief rally, nobody can be sure.
With the sizeable majority voting no to political reform in the Italian referendum, the anger vote has claimed its next victim – Italy. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy continue to fall.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2016: Italy, UK and US shocks underline the risks of populism, as oil exporters take a caning
Trade Finance Survey 2017: Tough times in trade finance
Country risk review 2016: Populism is risky
The question of banks moving to the mainland after Brexit will be settled at the dining table.
Year in data 2016: A watershed year for European bank shares
For many European bank stocks, 2016 was an unrelentingly awful year.
2016: A rollercoaster year for foreign exchange
EU finance post-Brexit: London, Paris, Frankfurt … Vilnius?
Perhaps size is an advantage for an innovation centre – small size, that is. It means you are nimble. So says Lithuania.
Capital markets activity in Europe is dominated by the UK, so the Brexit vote could have dealt a mortal blow to the European Commission’s plans to promote it through the capital markets union initiative. To survive, CMU will have to get global.
Brexit: FX hedging headache on the horizon
UK businesses face a post-Brexit hedging headache, as FX protection purchased before the referendum is now running out for many companies. The cost of renewing it has subsequently sky rocketed.
Banking: CEOs call for regulatory harmony, time to digest change
Brexit threatens eurozone, but region still crucial to global banks.
Dimon, Corbat and Gorman talk Brexit
The topic of Brexit was never going to be far from the minds of delegates at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Institute of International Finance, both being held this week in Washington, DC. And on Friday afternoon, delegates got a chance to hear the views of three vocal US bank chief executives — Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Mike Corbat of Citi and James Gorman of Morgan Stanley.
Against the tide: Politics and economics – the anger vote
UK commercial real estate’s post-Brexit shock has proved short-lived, and high-profile gating of investors in a number of UK real estate funds did not precipitate a flood of copy-cat behaviour. But the long-term outlook for investors and lenders in UK real estate remains extremely uncertain.
Brexit offers glimmer of hope for challenger banks
FX recruitment holds firm after Brexit
While market talk suggests a number of finance professionals are delaying planned moves to London and some hiring seems to have been put on hold, specialist FX recruiters claim it has largely been business as usual post-Brexit.
Brexit volatility fuels FX mis-selling claims
Brexit-related currency volatility is fuelling a rise in foreign-exchange product mis-selling enquiries from businesses that have been burnt on ‘fiendishly complicated’ currency trades.
Treasurers left in the dark over ring-fencing plans
The uncertainty created by the UK’s recent referendum decision to leave the European Union is making the country’s banks reluctant to discuss openly their plans for ring-fencing parts of their domestic operations.
Real estate: Property fund gatings revive memories of 2008
Brexit sparks investor flight; private equity sees an opening.
Check your hedges, Citi warns corporates, amid Brexit FX volatility
The UK's decision to leave the EU has left corporates scrambling to review many aspects of their business to ensure they are able to withstand heightened volatility. Injecting a greater level of optionality into their hedging strategies is one way to protect themselves from increased uncertainty, says Citi.
Brexit is no disaster for the UK, but it has increased the risk of investing
The swift formation of a new government and the opportunities created by the pound’s fall have quietened the doomsayers. But risk experts have downgraded their views on the economic outlook and government stability after the referendum, with so much that is still unknown.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2016: Global risk hits new high as Brexit adds to China and EM concerns
Bank of England plots strategy to calm fretful markets
The BoE still has plenty of monetary weapons in its policy arsenal, including expanding an asset-purchase programme akin to the ECB. But amid febrile market confidence, it needs to tread carefully.
As market activity to some extent returns to normal after the immediate post-Brexit plunge, dealers and traders are searching for signs of how clients will behave over the coming weeks and months.
UK-based financial institutions should expect the bulk of European Union regulations to remain in place up to and even after the UK's exit from the bloc, despite uncertainties over the terms of the eventual exit, lawyers say.
The cities seeking to take London’s FX crown
FX traders pick through Brexit wreckage
Macaskill on markets: Brexit and the merchant bankers
Brexit vote triggers market mayhem
Brexit imperils City’s status as euro-clearing hub
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to quickly challenge London’s status as the eurozone’s largest hub for the clearing of euro-denominated trades if the EU referendum goes against UK membership – but the move, which would be seen as highly political, would be beset with legal challenges.
Swedish krona in line of fire amid Brexit
The Swedish krona is ranked as the third weakest currency in a Brexit scenario after sterling and euro, according to analysts.
The UK’s economic and structural ECR scores are holding up well despite the possibility that its people will vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week. The strength of the sovereign’s outlook means that if the UK did vote to leave, it could quickly recover from the ensuing drop in its risk score, claim several experts this week.
Brexit volatility triggers warnings on stop-loss orders
The potential for next week’s EU referendum to trigger a sizeable movement in sterling highlights the need for clients to review their use of stop-loss orders as a risk-management mechanism, amid memories of the SNB debacle.
Organized trading facilities set to increase FX transparency
“Most likely they will register in the UK unless Brexit becomes a reality, in which case mainland Europe applications could begin to emerge, probably based in Frankfurt,” he says.
EU referendum: UK banks brace for Brexit risk
Existential threat to euro wholesale industry; Fears for loss of single-market passport.
Corporates hedge Brexit risk with FX forwards
With the spectre of a 'Leave' vote predominating in the UK EU referendum hanging heavily over FX markets, corporates are likely to further increase their use of forwards as a hedging option.
FX risk management faces volatility challenge
The sheer volume of risks faced by the FX market is placing pressure on banks to create mitigation strategies to cover a wider range of market challenges, from Brexit to illiquidity.
Heightened concern over Brazil, China and other EMs accentuates global shock prospects
Country Risk Survey Q1 2016
Asia risk experts are, moreover, concerned by three issues: the possibility of Brexit causing ripple effects across the region; a stronger US dollar enticing capital outflow; and tensions in the South China Sea.
USD: What a difference a year makes in FX
The US dollar has weakened against most major currencies this year, with the exclusion of the British pound, which is under pressure due to the threat of a potential Brexit.
UK and US – the not-so-special special relationship
Off message, April 2016
Brexit presents a fascinating situation for the financial services community.
The announcement of the referendum date of June 23 on UK membership of the European Union (EU) sent an already-weakening pound into a tailspin, which saw it testing multi-decade lows, but traders are divided on whether sterling has bottomed out as Brexit fears jump.
Country risk: Global risk is as much political as economic
The movement of peoples displaced by the warfare has increased political risk in Europe, and Syria’s problems are likely to be exacerbated by growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This, in turn, will affect European economies, feed into the UK Brexit debate, influence the outcome of elections and affect the EU project as a whole, all of which have the potential to buffet the financial markets.
Against the tide, December 2015
Britain’s renegotiation of its relationship with the EU could be a good thing for Europe too.
UK politics – Dependent and independent
Against the tide, June 2015
The newly elected Tory party must wrestle with an invigorated SNP and its old bête noire, the EU. The proposed in/out referendum will cast a long shadow over the UK.
General election a lose-lose event for UK banks
"The longer-term risk of a Conservative-led consortium is an in/out referendum on Europe by 2017, stoking increased fears of Brexit," says Ghose. "This could potentially have severe consequences for the UK banks, including reduced access to the single EU market if the current passporting rights cannot be renegotiated. This could potentially make corporate and investment banking untenable for global banks operating with a UK hub."
The fragmentation of Europe
Against the tide, March 2015
Political pressures and lack of growth have put the European project under threat. Reform is urgently needed to set Europe back on course.
The year of the dollar bull
Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX strategy at Citi, says: “Investors don’t see any positive outcomes for GBP, with a Labour majority/coalition bad for business and Conservative majority/coalition raising prospects of Brexit.”
"I told him: if you think the French and the Germans are going to leave the position of London as a financial centre untouched you’re living in cloud-cuckoo land" - A top investment banker on his words of warning to a senior Bank of England official about the implications of a Brexit
Sterling safe from currency war but Brexit casts a shadow
Improved eurozone sentiment has seen sterling lose its safe-haven status and has renewed worries about the UK’s credit rating.
Brexit will lead to 'years of uncertainty' for Britain
A referendum to decide whether the UK should remain in the European Union could negatively affect trade and investment into the UK, say economists, though some businesses threw their weight behind David Cameron's announcement.
Fears over EU exit weigh heavy on City
RBS sponsored article, January 2013
After a couple of turbulent years worrying about Grexit – Greece being ejected from the euro – the City now has something closer to home to worry about: Brexit.
EU budget talks spark calls for a British exit
Although a Brexit remains in the balance, real politics suggest the government will favour a less confrontational position in Europe, though it still remains a high-stake option for Britain to take.