Should we be panicking about UK debt sustainability now?

Financial markets reacted calmly to news of an early UK election, expecting whoever wins to stick to the fiscal rules. But whoever wins must also cope with rising debts and onerous interest payments.

There was a big surprise in the UK last week. On May 22, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that UK core consumer price inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.9% in April.

That is down from 4.2% in March. But the consensus expectation had been that the rate of price rises would come in sharply lower, at closer to 3.6%.

Stickier core inflation makes early rates cuts less likely. Yields on 10-year gilts rose 11 basis points on the news.

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