Western Europe: Bank provisioning for a rainy day

Post-2008 accounting standards set aside capital for tomorrow’s problem loans today. In doing so, they rely on the judgements of the banks themselves. However, after Covid-19, European banks cannot afford to provision for write-offs in the same way as their US counterparts.

No wonder investors struggled to believe the upbeat tone in European banks’ third-quarter 2020 results.

Given how much banks reduced and even wrote back provisions, you might have thought Covid-19 was over. Instead, the continent was just entering a second wave of infections and lockdowns, and the main vaccine test results had not even been made public.

Under the new accounting frameworks designed to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 crisis, banks are supposed to hike loan-loss provisions when they see risks increasing.

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