Shifting currency exposures create treasury dilemma

Hedging may look expensive for businesses that have seen their revenues cut heavily by Covid-19 prevention measures, but removing hedges for currencies to which they have limited exposure may prove even more so.

There have been a number of unwinds by European fashion retailers, according to Deutsche Bank

Many treasurers have found themselves with higher than expected hedge ratios as a consequence of reduced revenues caused by coronavirus restrictions.

Where corporate treasuries run anticipated cash-flow hedging programmes based on sales/costs forecasts, under normal circumstances they tend to be under-hedged to allow for forecast errors on these programmes. But given the unprecedented impact of coronavirus on the global economy, there will be cases of corporates that are over-hedged for their revised forecasts.

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