The capacity of the OPEC nations to absorb imports is astonishing, judging by the surprise that greeted the predictions of Dr Otmar Emminger and Morgan Guaranty Trust that the OPEC surpluses may be eliminated in a few years’ time.
If these predictions are correct, those countries that have relied more on their ability to attract oil dollars, than to transfer real wealth through higher exports to OPEC states, may be relatively less well off than they are now; conversely, countries with high export capacities will do better, including Japan and West Germany.
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