Capital markets: Happy new year?

European capital markets bankers’ fortunes in 2019 will turn on how quickly the withdrawal of the central bank bid can be offset by the return of a real market.

For any European capital markets bankers mulling their prospects in 2019, here are a couple of sobering statistics.

First, debt. Through its quantitative easing (QE) programme, the European Central Bank has been hoovering up about €8 billion to €9 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds every month, but total redemptions in the asset class in the next 12 months are expected to be just €6 billion.

Now for equity. In 2017, far from a vintage year for European ECM, there had been 17 selldowns of more than €1 billion.

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