We need to talk about UK banks

While analysts focus on net interest margins and the turning credit cycle, there is an extraordinary risk hiding in plain sight.

Theresa May’s effort to engineer a sensible looking soft departure has actually increased the risk of a no deal exit

In August UK banks will finally start reporting their second quarter results, limping in behind their US and European counterparts. Analysts can barely conceal their disregard. “Curb your enthusiasm ­­– if you had any,” suggest analysts at UBS, whose best hope is that net interest margins – the key sector risk in many investors’ minds – should at least prove stable in 2018, helped by falling wholesale funding costs.

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