Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, April 8th 2009]
Macro-economic issues fashioned our position that this recession is “L-shaped”, i.e. that it will go through several percentage points of GDP decline, ending (with a little good fortune) towards the end of 2009, followed by years of little growth or decline. Earlier hopes, partly shared by us, that “decoupling” would allow the world to survive an adjustment in US over-spending, have been totally dashed. In a way, however, the ghost of the decoupling dream lives on. |
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