Protection sellers face high payouts in Lehman CDS auction

The long-anticipated ISDA auction settlement of Lehman CDS trades took place October 10 amid heightened nervousness in the market about what the impact of the final settlement price will be. The key issue in the Lehman auction is the net open interest (buyers versus sellers) for the contracts – which initially shows US$4.92 billion to sell.

In the recent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac CDS auction the net position was bid – there were more buyers than sellers – which led to the perverse result that the final price for subordinated paper was higher than that for senior. In Lehman’s case there are US$138 billion senior bonds and US$17 billion subordinated bonds outstanding (but many of these are non-deliverable under the ISDA protocol) and CDS exposure widely reported as being around US$400 billion.

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