Bond Outlook June 4th

This week is seeing three turning points to do with the commodities bubble, vehicle technology and the attitude of the Fed towards inflation. The credit crisis’ second phase is underway.

Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, June 4th 2008]

Despite the view of a certain former central banker to the contrary, we think that it is fairly easy to recognise a bubble when it is building. “Dot.com” was obvious, so was housing; the bubble in low-credit perhaps less so. A much more difficult challenge is to detect the beginning of the deflation of a bubble, for example, the current commodities bubble. We suspect that this has now begun.

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