Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, June 4th 2008]
Despite the view of a certain former central banker to the contrary, we think that it is fairly easy to recognise a bubble when it is building. “Dot.com” was obvious, so was housing; the bubble in low-credit perhaps less so. A much more difficult challenge is to detect the beginning of the deflation of a bubble, for example, the current commodities bubble. We suspect that this has now begun. |
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