Inside investment: Pouring oil on troubled waters

A US recession could be short, shallow and relatively benign for the rest of the world if oil price falls in 2008.

In the immortal words of the narrator in the British comedy classic Withnail and I: “Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.” Market commentators should have that maxim tattooed on to their foreheads, lest they get carried away by their successful crystal-ball-gazing. With that caveat duly out of the way, prepare for a boast or two.

This time last year this column predicted that during 2007 the debt binge and the boom in ever more complex structured credit would both come to a sticky end.

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