FX: Carry on trading

Is there an opportunity to initiate new positions at better levels or has the bubble burst?

Much has been made of the impact Japanese retail investors have had in dampening down volatility in the foreign exchange markets. For a long period of time, the strategy of selling yen and buying high-yielding currencies has proved popular and highly successful. The weight of the yen selling has confounded the expectations of many who have predicted that the US dollar would weaken against the yen. Supply and demand has ensured that this prospect has not materialized.

However, one impact of the global credit crunch that suddenly emerged through August was the huge and at times dramatic unwinding of carry trades.

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