Against the tide: Sweet or sour in the Year of the Pig?

Nothing is more likely to cause instability than a long period of stability. And excessive growth of credit and liquidity is a clear warning sign of crashes to come, probably within the next year.

On February 18 the Chinese Year of the Pig begins. I am counselled by my Chinese friends to undertake nothing risky during the upcoming porcine year. It might easily turn from sweet to sour.

As I write, the global equity rally that began last summer is still motoring along. Last May, the world got a whiff of the sort of damage that tightening liquidity could do and didn’t like it. Monetary conditions have been easing ever since, particularly in the US.

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