Europe: Will Europe burst asunder?

Europe’s economies are split in two: the surpluses of the centre and the north, versus the deficits of the UK, France, and the Mediterranean and accession countries. As the imbalances become exacerbated, Charles Dumas asks if there is a get-out clause for the continent’s likely downswing.

 World Economic Forum special report: Contents

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While European imbalances cannot compete with the trans-Pacific main plot in pure scale, they are as large (and dangerous) relative to the economies concerned: which are not small. Europe’s GDP weighed in at just under $12 trillion in 2005, just below the US’s. Dividing the countries by current account surplus or deficits produces roughly equal size “half-Europe” economies in which the surplus countries’ current accounts are 5.5% of GDP and the deficit countries’ 3.

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