Bond Outlook September 13th

Support is available from pundits for all four of the scenarios we painted last week:

1. “Goldlocks”, essentially no change
2. “Soft landing”, a slowdown compensated by higher consumption outside the USA
3. Recession, with a serious drop in US consumption not compensated elsewhere
4. Collapse

Apparently number 4 is supported by a chartist cum astrologist and may be expected in a few days! Despite such warnings, for the moment we remain wedded (well, maybe “engaged”) to scenario 2, with further Fed rises awaited around the end of the year.