Case 1: Czech Republic

Does east follow west to the euro?

Does east follow west to the euro?

Case 2: Hungary

Case 3: Poland

Case 4: Slovakia

The Czech Republic’s fiscal position can be described as solid, with the deficit on track for 3% of GDP this year. Debt levels are at around 30% of GDP.

But the medium-term outlook is harder to predict, as is the case in all the CE4 countries, because of unpredictable politics. Reform initiatives might prove complicated as the Civil Democrats, who won power in parliamentary elections in June, struggle to form a stable majority government.

The impact of fiscal policy in the coming two years is highly uncertain, argues Raffaella Tenconi, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

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