ECB Watch: Does normalization imply a ‘refi’ rate of 4% next year?

The ECB sets great store by the transparency of its decision-making process and the clarity of its communication with the outside world. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet was reminding us of this again last month.

Faced with a mixed bag of evidence about recent economic developments, the European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged in April, in the wake of the 25 basis point increase in its main refinancing rate, to 2.5%, in March. GDP growth in the final quarter of 2005 was confirmed at 0.3%, down on the third quarter’s 0.6%, and the various monthly indicators of activity showed at best lacklustre growth at the beginning of 2006.

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