Country risk poll: Global Results

Overall rankings To obtain the overall country risk score, Euromoney assigns a weighting to nine categories. These are political risk (25% weighting), economic performance (25%), debt indicators (10%), debt in default or rescheduled (10%), credit ratings (10%), access to bank finance (5%), access to short-term finance (5%), access to capital markets (5%), forfaiting (5%).

Overall rankings To obtain the overall country risk score, Euromoney assigns a weighting to nine categories. These are political risk (25% weighting), economic performance (25%), debt indicators (10%), debt in default or rescheduled (10%), credit ratings (10%), access to bank finance (5%), access to short-term finance (5%), access to capital markets (5%), forfaiting (5%).  

Political risk is defined for this exercise as the risk of non-payment or non-servicing of payment for goods or services, loans, trade-related finance and dividends, and the non-repatriation of capital. Risk analysts give each country a score between 10 and zero – the higher the score, the less risky the country.

Economic performance data are based (1) on GNI (Atlas Method) figures per capita and (2) on results of the Euromoney poll of economic projections. 

Debt indicators are calculated using these ratios from the World Bank’s Early Release Global Development Finance 2006: total debt stocks to GNP (A), debt service to exports (B); current account balance to GNP (C). Developing countries that do not report complete debt data get a score of zero.

Debt in default or rescheduled scores are based on the ratio of rescheduled debt to debt stocks, taken from the World Bank’s Early Release Global Development Finance 2006. OECD and developing countries that do not report under the debtor reporting system (DRS) score 10 and zero respectively.

Credit ratings are based on nominal values assigned to sovereign ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s, Fitch IBCA and Capital Intelligence. The higher the average value, the better. Where there is no rating, countries score zero.

Access to bank finance data are calculated from disbursements of private, long-term, unguaranteed loans as a percentage of GNP. Source: World Bank’s Early Release Global Development Finance 2006.

Access to short-term finance takes into account OECD consensus groups (source: ECGD) and short-term cover available from the US Exim Bank and Atradius UK

Access to capital markets data is derived from ratings by heads of debt syndicate and loan syndications of each country’s accessibility to international markets.

Discount on forfaiting reflects the average maximum tenor for forfaiting (the maximum period of promissory note or bill of exchange from the issue date until its maturity date in the primary market, from the purchase/sale date to maturity in the secondary market data). Countries where forfaiting is not available score zero.

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Country risk poll: Global results March 2006

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Country risk
Mar ‘06 Sep ’05 Country Total score Political risk Economic performance Debt indicators Default/rescheduled debt Credit ratings Bank finance Short-term finance access Capital markets access Forfaiting
100 25 25 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
1 1 Luxembourg 99.65 25.00 25.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
2 3 Norway 98.44 24.83 23.95 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
3 2 Switzerland 98.03 24.92 23.46 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
4 4 United States 96.72 24.38 22.34 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
5 5 Denmark 94.94 24.77 21.10 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.07
6 6 Sweden 94.41 24.98 19.78 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
7 7 Finland 93.41 24.74 19.02 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
8 12 Netherlands 92.80 24.53 18.62 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
9 9 Austria 92.70 24.50 18.55 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
10 11 Ireland 92.69 23.81 19.23 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
11 8 United Kingdom 92.23 23.70 18.88 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
12 10 Canada 92.22 24.19 18.52 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.51
13 14 Belgium 90.55 23.59 18.14 10.00 10.00 9.17 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
14 16 Iceland 90.51 23.56 18.94 10.00 10.00 8.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.26
15 15 Australia 90.37 24.20 16.73 10.00 10.00 9.79 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
16 13 Japan 90.14 23.25 19.69 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 4.75 3.49
17 17 Germany 90.12 23.76 16.71 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
18 18 France 89.18 23.25 16.28 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
19 21 Spain 88.06 23.35 15.06 10.00 10.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
20 19 Singapore 87.90 23.47 16.25 10.00 10.00 9.84 5.00 5.00 3.83 4.51
21 20 New Zealand 87.16 23.92 14.00 10.00 10.00 9.58 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
22 22 Italy 85.18 22.18 14.97 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.07
23 23 Bermuda 83.80 21.73 15.46 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 4.75 2.91
24 24 Portugal 82.79 22.35 11.83 10.00 10.00 8.96 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.65
25 26 Hong Kong 82.74 21.29 17.78 10.00 10.00 7.81 5.00 4.20 3.75 2.91
26 25 Taiwan 81.41 20.67 15.72 10.00 10.00 7.81 5.00 5.00 3.83 3.37
27 27 Greece 79.77 20.96 12.57 10.00 10.00 7.03 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.22
28 29 Slovenia 79.62 21.70 12.02 10.00 10.00 7.97 5.00 4.60 4.38 3.95
29 31 United Arab Emirates 78.63 19.30 16.70 10.00 10.00 7.50 5.00 5.00 1.75 3.37
30 30 Qatar 77.84 19.53 15.66 10.00 10.00 7.50 5.00 4.20 2.75 3.20
31 28 Malta 76.50 21.18 12.13 10.00 10.00 6.67 5.00 4.20 5.00 2.33
32 33 Kuwait 74.85 19.26 14.00 10.00 10.00 7.50 5.00 4.20 1.75 3.14
33 34 Bahamas 72.69 19.05 12.53 10.00 10.00 6.25 5.00 4.20 2.75 2.91
34 32 Cyprus 72.58 19.42 12.63 10.00 10.00 7.03 5.00 4.20 1.00 3.29
35 39 Brunei 71.41 20.08 15.25 10.00 10.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 4.07
36 38 Bahrain 70.53 17.93 12.09 10.00 10.00 5.94 5.00 4.20 2.00 3.37
37 35 Korea South 69.87 20.31 11.78 9.69 10.00 6.72 0.14 4.20 3.83 3.20
38 40 Israel 69.12 18.09 12.11 10.00 10.00 6.46 5.00 3.80 0.75 2.91
39 36 Czech Republic 68.82 20.33 10.10 9.05 10.00 6.56 0.55 4.20 4.19 3.84
40 44 Saudi Arabia 68.53 16.12 11.13 10.00 10.00 6.67 5.00 4.00 2.25 3.37
41 37 Hungary 68.50 19.30 9.50 8.18 10.00 6.41 2.00 5.00 4.16 3.95
42 42 Estonia 67.01 19.75 9.56 7.98 10.00 7.08 3.70 2.93 2.88 3.14
43 45 Poland 66.26 19.30 8.53 8.78 10.00 5.94 1.19 4.00 4.34 4.19
44 43 Chile 65.73 20.02 9.92 8.45 10.00 6.46 0.75 3.20 2.50 4.42
45 46 Slovak Republic 64.87 19.23 9.43 8.84 10.00 6.56 0.94 2.87 3.63 3.37
46 47 Malaysia 63.83 19.72 9.29 9.33 10.00 6.09 0.35 2.80 3.33 2.91
47 53 Oman 63.57 18.40 9.82 10.00 10.00 5.63 0.14 4.20 2.25 3.14
48 51 Trinidad & Tobago 63.16 18.13 11.01 9.71 10.00 5.63 0.00 3.80 2.75 2.13
49 49 Mexico 63.15 17.48 8.84 9.20 10.00 5.21 0.30 4.20 3.50 4.42
50 41 Barbados 62.69 19.45 9.77 10.00 10.00 5.31 0.00 3.00 2.25 2.91
51 56 Latvia 61.76 19.09 9.02 8.05 10.00 6.25 1.51 2.07 2.63 3.14
52 52 China 61.71 17.79 10.68 9.65 10.00 6.41 0.11 2.00 2.17 2.91
53 50 Lithuania 61.40 18.82 9.58 7.55 10.00 6.25 0.56 2.87 2.75 3.02
54 48 Botswana 60.46 17.04 8.24 9.98 10.00 6.88 0.00 3.20 2.50 2.62
55 54 South Africa 59.25 16.96 7.75 9.55 10.00 5.31 0.06 3.00 3.25 3.37
56 55 Croatia 58.82 16.30 8.69 8.31 10.00 4.58 1.88 2.87 2.81 3.37
57 58 Thailand 58.41 17.54 7.41 9.25 10.00 5.63 0.44 3.00 2.00 3.14
58 59 India 56.45 17.03 6.85 9.33 10.00 3.91 0.12 3.00 2.50 3.72
59 60 Tunisia 56.27 16.24 7.40 8.70 10.00 5.00 0.06 3.00 2.50 3.37
60 61 Kazakhstan 55.45 14.08 7.13 7.76 10.00 4.58 5.00 1.75 2.25 2.91
61 57 Mauritius 55.05 16.16 8.08 9.32 10.00 5.00 0.04 3.00 1.50 1.94
62 63 Russia 54.65 15.15 8.09 9.25 9.64 5.00 0.38 1.80 2.20 3.14
63 65 Bulgaria 54.31 15.38 7.49 8.66 10.00 4.58 1.17 1.50 2.40 3.14
64 62 Antigua & Barbuda 53.94 16.08 10.46 10.00 10.00 0.00 5.00 2.40 0.00 0.00
65 66 Romania 53.22 15.13 7.04 8.85 10.00 4.06 0.80 1.67 2.06 3.60
66 64 Morocco 53.04 15.38 6.87 8.97 10.00 3.54 0.05 2.60 2.25 3.37
67 68 Costa Rica 51.64 15.51 7.53 9.28 10.00 3.33 0.00 2.60 2.00 1.40
68 71 Egypt 51.12 14.37 6.83 9.32 10.00 3.75 0.00 2.20 1.50 3.14
69 69 Brazil 50.52 14.44 7.11 7.89 9.99 2.50 0.27 2.80 2.50 3.02
70 67 Panama 50.30 14.64 7.42 8.73 10.00 3.54 0.18 2.80 1.25 1.74
71 72 Turkey 50.18 14.59 6.74 8.20 10.00 2.50 0.73 2.80 1.25 3.37
72 75 Macau 48.35 19.80 14.74 0.00 0.00 6.25 0.00 3.40 1.25 2.91
73 70 El Salvador 48.28 12.86 6.06 9.15 10.00 3.96 0.00 3.00 1.50 1.74
74 80 Jordan 47.59 14.46 6.37 8.71 8.84 3.13 0.00 2.40 1.25 2.44
75 77 Colombia 46.56 13.20 5.96 8.30 10.00 3.13 0.00 2.80 0.50 2.67
76 79 Peru 45.90 12.92 6.56 8.80 10.00 2.92 0.02 2.00 0.00 2.67
77 85 Algeria 45.85 14.05 8.04 9.28 10.00 0.00 0.04 2.00 0.00 2.44
78 82 Ukraine 45.74 12.92 6.61 9.23 10.00 2.29 1.03 1.40 0.75 1.51
79 73 Iran 45.13 11.21 7.58 9.80 10.00 2.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.03
80 76 Philippines 45.01 12.83 5.63 8.66 10.00 2.50 0.17 2.00 1.00 2.21
81 90 Fiji 45.00 13.85 6.54 9.69 10.00 3.13 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00
82 74 Vietnam 44.65 13.49 5.09 9.27 10.00 2.34 0.00 1.70 1.25 1.51
83 95 Macedonia (FYR) 43.56 10.87 5.90 9.08 10.00 3.44 0.23 1.55 0.75 1.74
84 144 Uruguay 43.50 13.51 6.19 7.97 10.00 1.25 0.01 2.80 1.00 0.78
85 89 Indonesia 43.15 12.57 5.66 8.56 10.00 1.88 0.31 1.20 1.00 1.98
86 86 Guatemala 43.04 11.41 5.28 9.49 10.00 2.81 0.02 2.60 0.50 0.93
87 81 St Vincent & the Grenadines 42.77 15.43 6.72 8.81 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00
88 83 Grenada 42.69 13.86 8.68 7.72 10.00 0.63 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00
89 92 Sri Lanka 42.56 11.31 5.21 9.08 10.00 2.08 0.05 2.20 1.00 1.63
90 78 St Lucia 41.74 13.57 7.35 8.82 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00
91 93 Pakistan 41.44 11.26 4.98 9.13 10.00 1.67 0.04 1.70 1.50 1.16
92 88 Jamaica 41.06 12.54 5.28 8.44 10.00 1.56 0.04 2.20 1.00 0.00
93 91 Maldives 40.83 13.85 5.74 9.24 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00
94 104 Senegal 40.66 12.78 4.75 8.92 10.00 1.88 0.15 1.60 0.00 0.58
95 100 Azerbaijan 40.48 10.41 5.15 9.09 8.38 3.13 0.31 1.65 1.50 0.87
96 98 Ghana 40.43 11.83 4.03 8.54 10.00 1.88 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.16
97 101 Seychelles 40.14 9.97 8.49 8.47 10.00 0.00 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.00
98 117 Lebanon 39.87 10.62 6.05 6.68 10.00 0.63 0.10 2.80 1.25 1.74
99 99 Tonga 39.53 13.10 5.13 9.30 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00
100 97 Vanuatu 39.25 13.73 4.20 9.32 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00
101 132 Turkmenistan 38.79 7.73 4.68 9.73 10.00 1.25 5.00 0.40 0.00 0.00
102 112 Papua New Guinea 38.31 10.81 4.24 8.87 10.00 1.46 0.00 1.60 0.75 0.58
103 106 Swaziland 38.23 10.74 3.92 9.61 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 0.00 1.16
104 96 Serbia and Montenegro 38.09 9.50 4.58 8.61 7.25 2.50 0.66 1.40 0.88 2.71
105 110 Venezuela 38.06 8.74 5.79 8.91 10.00 1.88 0.13 0.60 1.00 1.02
106 122 Albania 38.02 10.91 5.09 9.56 10.00 0.00 0.05 1.65 0.75 0.00
107 108 Cape Verde 37.69 9.42 4.86 8.94 10.00 1.88 0.00 2.60 0.00 0.00
108 129 Equatorial Guinea 37.56 10.62 6.52 8.82 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00
109 115 Paraguay 37.43 9.27 4.48 9.10 10.00 0.31 0.00 2.20 1.50 0.58
110 124 Bosnia-Herzegovina 37.43 9.20 4.71 8.99 10.00 0.63 0.07 1.80 0.00 2.03
111 102 Samoa 37.33 14.04 4.40 7.09 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00
112 113 Lesotho 37.28 11.08 2.31 9.00 10.00 2.50 0.00 2.40 0.00 0.00
113 119 Bolivia 37.18 8.93 4.44 8.52 10.00 0.63 0.21 2.10 1.50 0.87
114 109 Honduras 37.07 10.56 4.30 8.53 9.52 1.25 0.32 2.00 0.00 0.58
115 125 Mozambique 36.95 12.04 2.97 8.30 10.00 1.25 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.58
116 139 Yemen 36.84 10.09 4.36 9.28 10.00 0.63 0.00 1.65 0.25 0.58
117 111 Dominican Republic 36.69 10.96 4.61 9.32 8.88 0.83 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.58
118 123 Uganda 36.61 10.15 3.65 8.81 9.97 1.25 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.97
119 120 Argentina 36.48 8.93 6.28 7.48 10.00 0.42 0.12 1.60 0.50 1.16
120 87 Dominica 36.41 13.57 5.70 8.24 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00
121 168 New Caledonia 36.14 18.34 12.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00
122 107 Armenia 36.06 10.92 4.02 9.19 10.00 0.00 0.03 1.40 0.50 0.00
123 94 Belize 36.05 10.46 5.15 7.87 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.58
124 138 Syria 36.04 8.96 5.56 8.68 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.25 0.70
125 121 Tanzania 36.03 11.51 3.51 8.83 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.58
126 103 Bangladesh 35.71 9.53 3.42 9.41 10.00 0.00 0.00 2.20 0.00 1.16
127 141 Mali 35.45 9.92 3.92 8.81 10.00 0.63 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.58
128 116 Ecuador 35.39 9.31 4.92 8.50 10.00 0.21 0.83 0.40 0.50 0.73
129 145 Georgia 35.18 9.37 4.14 8.97 10.00 1.88 0.16 0.40 0.25 0.00
130 84 Bhutan 35.09 11.84 3.05 8.61 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00
131 126 Kenya 34.81 10.08 3.71 9.04 9.20 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.50 0.58
132 133 Benin 34.76 9.11 3.62 9.06 10.00 1.56 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.00
133 118 Mongolia 34.52 11.97 2.43 7.66 10.00 1.67 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00
134 128 Madagascar 34.48 10.15 2.78 9.00 10.00 1.25 0.00 0.80 0.50 0.00
135 114 Djibouti 34.37 10.66 3.93 8.97 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00
136 105 Guyana 33.71 10.97 3.85 7.34 9.96 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00
137 131 Uzbekistan 33.58 8.28 2.71 8.97 10.00 0.00 0.13 1.15 1.75 0.58
138 137 Nigeria 33.47 8.09 4.57 8.97 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.44
139 149 Cameroon 32.97 8.71 3.32 8.78 9.79 0.31 0.06 2.00 0.00 0.00
140 136 Niger 32.45 7.49 3.12 8.79 9.95 0.00 0.00 1.60 1.50 0.00
141 130 Moldova 32.44 8.45 2.72 8.68 9.65 0.31 0.23 1.40 1.00 0.00
142 152 Ethiopia 32.17 8.87 2.70 8.54 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.00 1.16
143 140 Laos 31.49 9.20 3.49 8.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00
144 143 Belarus 31.49 6.51 4.57 9.65 10.00 0.00 0.02 0.40 0.33 0.00
145 146 Burkina Faso 31.08 7.13 3.81 9.02 7.76 1.25 0.00 2.10 0.00 0.00
146 142 Chad 30.99 7.44 2.86 8.33 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 1.16
147 155 Nicaragua 30.55 8.41 3.95 7.90 8.73 0.00 0.15 1.40 0.00 0.00
148 127 Cambodia 30.51 8.79 2.39 8.93 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00
149 150 Nepal 30.26 6.29 2.39 9.19 10.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.58
150 153 Zambia 30.21 8.65 3.81 7.04 10.00 0.00 0.01 0.40 0.00 0.29
151 135 Gabon 29.88 9.99 5.42 8.83 3.44 0.00 0.00 2.20 0.00 0.00
152 173 Namibia 29.67 13.02 7.11 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.16
153 134 Gambia 29.32 10.07 0.91 7.54 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00
154 160 Angola 28.45 8.62 4.79 8.47 6.17 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00
155 163 Togo 28.39 8.80 <