Market prospects: S&P changes mind on prices

After earlier forecasting that European share prices would rise in 2006, Standard & Poor’s equity research now expects a 7% fall. The change in outlook is the result of the European Central Bank’s decision to jump on the bandwagon of global monetary policy tightening.

The ECB’s decision to raise rates in December by 0.25 percentage points, the first increase in five years, is expected to be followed by Japan, where investors expect the central bank to begin raising rates in 2006.

“We believe that investors are too sanguine about the impact of higher interest rates on equity markets in 2006 – 2005/06 is the first time since 1986 that investors have faced a coordinated global tightening of monetary policy,” says Clive McDonnell, European strategist at S&P.

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