Bond Outlook January 11th

Among all those economic data, only two things really matter: what happens when the mewing stops, and when will the Chinese withdraw dollar support.

Among all those economic data, only two things really matter: what happens when the mewing stops, and when will the Chinese withdraw dollar support.

Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, January 11th 2006]

Is it possible to reduce the arguments on whither the economy to two key factors? We shall be so bold as to say that it is. To put it another way, we identify two driving forces, with most other variables dependent on them:

 

  • Mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) as the means of maintaining US consumer spending
  • The Chinese policy towards supporting the dollar.

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